25 May 2026 – 26 Jul 2026 · page 2 of 3
A modestly bullish EIA print and blistering late-July heat couldn't lift natural gas last week as record output and a fat storage surplus kept sellers in control.
Record summer heat is propping up a sub-$3 front month, but persistently loose storage builds and a warm El Niño winter lean keep any rally firmly capped.
6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
A larger-than-expected storage build and a Freeport LNG maintenance turnaround knocked the front month to a six-week low near $3, and the pressure isn't done.
1–3 mo Balanced was Supportive3–6 mo Cautious was Balanced6–12 mo Pressuring was Cautious
A record July Fourth heat dome torched the East, but a loose EIA build and resilient supply capped every rally as the curve priced the peak-summer heat.
1–3 mo Supportive was Constructive
A late-June heat wave lifted natural gas last week; with a post-July-4 heat dome building and injections set to collapse, the front stays capped-bullish.
1–3 mo Constructive was Supportive6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
Cooling demand and a shrinking July build firmed prices last week, but a strengthening El Niño keeps the winter 2026-27 outlook on the back foot.
Henry Hub shed about 6.5% on the week even as cooling demand ramped, while a strengthening El Niño keeps pressure on the back of the curve.
Cooling demand and below-pace storage builds keep the prompt firm, but a strengthening El Niño and record output leave next winter looking heavy.
6–12 mo Pressuring was Cautious
Natural gas ripped to a 2.5-month high on confirmed summer heat last week, but a near-certain warm winter keeps the back of the curve heavy heading into June.
1–3 mo Supportive was Balanced6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
Front-month natural gas gave back the late-May heat-dome bid as Memorial Day cooled the East and the 26-27 mild-winter case got harder to ignore.
3–6 mo Balanced was Supportive
See a full daily report, as a member sees it.
Open a sample reportArrows show which way each number moved. Green means the move usually supports natural-gas prices; red means it usually weighs on them. More production is red because extra supply tends to push prices down. More LNG feedgas is green because exports take gas out of the US market. Storage is judged against the 5-year average for the same date, so a normal-sized build stays grey. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). It’s a rule of thumb, not a forecast: the outlook weighs everything together. Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by what it means for prices, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means it went up, red that it went down; prices are green when they rise. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by which way it moved, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Thresholds last worked out on 5 Oct 2026 from the year before.