21 Jun 2026 – 23 Aug 2026 · page 2 of 3
Natural gas clawed back an early-week flush as late-August heat lingered, but a record El Niño keeps fading the rich winter premium into a warm-leaning season.
Late-summer heat kept the prompt firm as record output loosened the balance, but a record-track El Nino bled the winter premium lower all week.
Natural gas slipped about 2% last week as a firming summer burn met a carried storage surplus and a Freeport-capped export bid ahead of Thursday's EIA print.
Genuine August heat couldn't lift natural gas last week as heavy output and re-loosening storage builds kept the front pinned and the winter premium fading.
A modestly bullish EIA print and blistering late-July heat couldn't lift natural gas last week as record output and a fat storage surplus kept sellers in control.
Record summer heat is propping up a sub-$3 front month, but persistently loose storage builds and a warm El Niño winter lean keep any rally firmly capped.
6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
A larger-than-expected storage build and a Freeport LNG maintenance turnaround knocked the front month to a six-week low near $3, and the pressure isn't done.
1–3 mo Balanced was Supportive3–6 mo Cautious was Balanced6–12 mo Pressuring was Cautious
A record July Fourth heat dome torched the East, but a loose EIA build and resilient supply capped every rally as the curve priced the peak-summer heat.
1–3 mo Supportive was Constructive
A late-June heat wave lifted natural gas last week; with a post-July-4 heat dome building and injections set to collapse, the front stays capped-bullish.
1–3 mo Constructive was Supportive6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
Cooling demand and a shrinking July build firmed prices last week, but a strengthening El Niño keeps the winter 2026-27 outlook on the back foot.
See a full daily report, as a member sees it.
Open a sample reportArrows show which way each number moved. Green means the move usually supports natural-gas prices; red means it usually weighs on them. More production is red because extra supply tends to push prices down. More LNG feedgas is green because exports take gas out of the US market. Storage is judged against the 5-year average for the same date, so a normal-sized build stays grey. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). It’s a rule of thumb, not a forecast: the outlook weighs everything together. Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by what it means for prices, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means it went up, red that it went down; prices are green when they rise. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by which way it moved, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Thresholds last worked out on 31 Oct 2026 from the year before.