SampleDegree-day sample · GFS 00Z Wed 30 Sep · a run from 7 days ago · the newest runs of all seven models are for members

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Degree Days

One run of one model, free to view a week after it’s published: GFS Wed 30 Sep, published Wed 30 Sep, 03:25 ET. Members get all seven models as each run is published.

GFS · 00Z Wed 30 Sep 2026

15 days, 30 Sep – 14 Oct · (HDD + CDD), base 65°F · normal 1991–2020

Published Wed 30 Sep, 03:25 ET

15-day total

149.6

HDD 61.2 + CDD 88.4national,

vs normal

Warmer+16.9TDD

HDD −12.8 / CDD +29.7normal for these days 132.7

Cooler+4.1TDD

HDD +10.2 / CDD −6.1vs the 00Z Tue 29 Sep run · 14 shared days

Warmer−5.0TDD

HDD −3.0 / CDD −2.0vs the 12Z Tue 29 Sep run · 15 shared days

total

146.4TDD

Warmer+17.3 vs normalCooler+8.5 in 24 h

The word is the temperature. The number is degree days, a measure of demand: + means more gas needed for heating and cooling, − means less. Elsewhere on the site the number takes the price colours.

Regions

EIA storage regions · vs normal, then the change in 24 h · population-weighted

Weighting

Region

National · population-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 9.3on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

National · population-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	8.64	+0.14warmer	−2.72	+2.86	−0.01little changed	−0.04little changed
Thu 1 Oct	9.46	+0.92warmer	−2.86	+3.78	−0.52cooler	−0.63cooler
Fri 2 Oct	10.40	+1.85warmer	−2.17	+4.02	−0.14little changed	−0.30cooler
Sat 3 Oct	9.48	+0.89warmer	−1.56	+2.45	+0.27little changed	−0.38little changed
Sun 4 Oct	9.19	+0.57warmer	−1.66	+2.23	−1.04warmer	−0.80warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.39	+1.71warmer	−0.43	+2.14	−0.86warmer	−0.09little changed
Tue 6 Oct	11.95	+3.22mixed	+1.61	+1.61	−0.13warmer	+0.93cooler
Wed 7 Oct	10.46	+1.66warmer	−0.15	+1.81	−0.44little changed	−0.17little changed
Thu 8 Oct	8.86	−0.01warmer	−2.35	+2.34	−0.23warmer	−0.77warmer
Fri 9 Oct	10.05	+1.11warmer	−1.24	+2.35	−0.24little changed	+0.99mixed
Sat 10 Oct	12.32	+3.31colder	+2.38	+0.93	+2.33cooler	+3.31cooler
Sun 11 Oct	12.05	+2.95colder	+2.35	+0.60	+1.42cooler	+3.17cooler
Mon 12 Oct	8.91	−0.26warmer	−0.85	+0.59	−4.17warmer	−1.91cooler
Tue 13 Oct	9.14	−0.10warmer	−1.30	+1.20	−1.60warmer	+0.82cooler
Wed 14 Oct	8.28	−1.04warmer	−1.89	+0.85	+0.40cooler	—
Totals	149.58	+16.92warmer	−12.84	+29.76	−4.96warmer	+4.13cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	8.64	8.70	8.65	8.54	8.68	−0.01little changed	−0.04little changed
Thu 1 Oct	9.46	9.44	9.98	9.71	10.09	−0.52cooler	−0.63cooler
Fri 2 Oct	10.40	10.39	10.54	10.77	10.70	−0.14little changed	−0.30cooler
Sat 3 Oct	9.48	9.37	9.21	9.42	9.86	+0.27little changed	−0.38little changed
Sun 4 Oct	9.19	9.12	10.23	10.18	9.99	−1.04warmer	−0.80warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.39	11.11	11.25	11.12	10.48	−0.86warmer	−0.09little changed
Tue 6 Oct	11.95	11.55	12.08	12.42	11.02	−0.13warmer	+0.93cooler
Wed 7 Oct	10.46	10.46	10.90	12.55	10.63	−0.44little changed	−0.17little changed
Thu 8 Oct	8.86	8.45	9.09	10.95	9.63	−0.23warmer	−0.77warmer
Fri 9 Oct	10.05	10.27	10.29	9.26	9.06	−0.24little changed	+0.99mixed
Sat 10 Oct	12.32	11.32	9.99	7.17	9.01	+2.33cooler	+3.31cooler
Sun 11 Oct	12.05	10.46	10.63	8.31	8.88	+1.42cooler	+3.17cooler
Mon 12 Oct	8.91	8.71	13.08	8.51	10.82	−4.17warmer	−1.91cooler
Tue 13 Oct	9.14	9.04	10.74	8.03	8.32	−1.60warmer	+0.82cooler
Wed 14 Oct	8.28	8.39	7.88	11.06	—	+0.40cooler	—
Totals	149.58	146.78	154.54	148.00	137.17*	−4.96warmer	+4.13cooler

— means that run didn’t forecast the date. * The earlier run’s total covers fewer days than this one, because it didn’t reach the newest date; compare with the change columns rather than subtracting totals.

East · population-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 9.6on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

East · population-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	6.28	−1.93warmer	−3.22	+1.29	−0.11little changed	−0.34little changed
Thu 1 Oct	8.45	+0.17warmer	−3.64	+3.81	−0.79cooler	−0.73cooler
Fri 2 Oct	10.37	+2.02warmer	−3.23	+5.25	−0.18cooler	−0.31cooler
Sat 3 Oct	7.66	−0.76warmer	−0.73	−0.03	−0.27cooler	−0.76cooler
Sun 4 Oct	7.36	−1.15mixed	−0.58	−0.57	−1.78warmer	−2.40mixed
Mon 5 Oct	8.29	−0.28colder	+0.22	−0.50	−2.18warmer	−1.22mixed
Tue 6 Oct	12.77	+4.10colder	+5.13	−1.03	−1.14warmer	+1.15cooler
Wed 7 Oct	11.46	+2.69colder	+3.84	−1.15	−1.27warmer	+0.13little changed
Thu 8 Oct	6.68	−2.19mixed	−1.27	−0.92	−0.83warmer	−2.56warmer
Fri 9 Oct	5.21	−3.76warmer	−2.98	−0.78	−3.64warmer	−3.34warmer
Sat 10 Oct	10.02	+0.93colder	+2.28	−1.35	−0.46little changed	+1.00cooler
Sun 11 Oct	12.26	+3.04colder	+5.12	−2.08	+3.34cooler	+6.11cooler
Mon 12 Oct	9.60	+0.26colder	+1.91	−1.65	−5.34warmer	−1.77cooler
Tue 13 Oct	7.67	−1.78mixed	−0.65	−1.13	−6.25warmer	−3.14warmer
Wed 14 Oct	5.78	−3.77warmer	−2.76	−1.01	−2.28warmer	—
Totals	129.86	−2.41colder	−0.56	−1.85	−23.18warmer	−8.18cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	6.28	6.48	6.39	6.41	6.62	−0.11little changed	−0.34little changed
Thu 1 Oct	8.45	8.23	9.24	8.89	9.18	−0.79cooler	−0.73cooler
Fri 2 Oct	10.37	10.20	10.55	10.71	10.68	−0.18cooler	−0.31cooler
Sat 3 Oct	7.66	7.81	7.93	7.73	8.42	−0.27cooler	−0.76cooler
Sun 4 Oct	7.36	7.29	9.14	8.83	9.76	−1.78warmer	−2.40mixed
Mon 5 Oct	8.29	10.52	10.47	10.09	9.51	−2.18warmer	−1.22mixed
Tue 6 Oct	12.77	13.42	13.91	13.46	11.62	−1.14warmer	+1.15cooler
Wed 7 Oct	11.46	12.12	12.73	14.85	11.33	−1.27warmer	+0.13little changed
Thu 8 Oct	6.68	7.26	7.51	12.43	9.24	−0.83warmer	−2.56warmer
Fri 9 Oct	5.21	9.83	8.85	9.44	8.55	−3.64warmer	−3.34warmer
Sat 10 Oct	10.02	13.93	10.48	6.20	9.02	−0.46little changed	+1.00cooler
Sun 11 Oct	12.26	13.45	8.92	6.76	6.15	+3.34cooler	+6.11cooler
Mon 12 Oct	9.60	8.28	14.94	8.91	11.37	−5.34warmer	−1.77cooler
Tue 13 Oct	7.67	10.36	13.92	7.43	10.81	−6.25warmer	−3.14warmer
Wed 14 Oct	5.78	10.22	8.06	13.36	—	−2.28warmer	—
Totals	129.86	149.40	153.04	145.50	132.26*	−23.18warmer	−8.18cooler

Midwest · population-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 11.0on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

Midwest · population-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	5.37	−2.58warmer	−5.06	+2.48	−0.31little changed	+0.32little changed
Thu 1 Oct	6.35	−1.78warmer	−4.43	+2.65	−1.02cooler	−1.34cooler
Fri 2 Oct	7.09	−1.19warmer	−1.17	−0.02	−0.38little changed	−0.74mixed
Sat 3 Oct	6.04	−2.43warmer	−1.97	−0.46	+0.19warmer	−1.94warmer
Sun 4 Oct	5.87	−2.82warmer	−2.62	−0.20	−1.22warmer	−0.53warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.37	+1.45colder	+2.53	−1.08	−0.58warmer	+0.58mixed
Tue 6 Oct	10.52	+1.36colder	+2.69	−1.33	+0.95cooler	+2.01cooler
Wed 7 Oct	5.01	−4.40warmer	−3.55	−0.85	+0.07little changed	−0.44warmer
Thu 8 Oct	5.56	−4.10warmer	−3.97	−0.13	−1.53warmer	0.00warmer
Fri 9 Oct	13.31	+3.40colder	+4.37	−0.97	+4.28cooler	+7.24cooler
Sat 10 Oct	19.58	+9.44colder	+10.49	−1.05	+13.40cooler	+15.87cooler
Sun 11 Oct	15.72	+5.37colder	+6.31	−0.94	+2.04cooler	+8.19cooler
Mon 12 Oct	8.39	−2.20mixed	−1.35	−0.85	−8.59warmer	−1.00warmer
Tue 13 Oct	10.81	+0.01colder	+0.72	−0.71	+1.80cooler	+7.57cooler
Wed 14 Oct	11.59	+0.56colder	+1.22	−0.66	+7.11cooler	—
Totals	141.58	+0.09colder	+4.21	−4.12	+16.21cooler	+35.79cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	5.37	5.45	5.68	5.34	5.05	−0.31little changed	+0.32little changed
Thu 1 Oct	6.35	6.68	7.37	6.58	7.69	−1.02cooler	−1.34cooler
Fri 2 Oct	7.09	7.14	7.47	7.37	7.83	−0.38little changed	−0.74mixed
Sat 3 Oct	6.04	6.43	5.85	6.24	7.98	+0.19warmer	−1.94warmer
Sun 4 Oct	5.87	6.99	7.09	7.75	6.40	−1.22warmer	−0.53warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.37	12.25	10.95	11.52	9.79	−0.58warmer	+0.58mixed
Tue 6 Oct	10.52	11.16	9.57	12.44	8.51	+0.95cooler	+2.01cooler
Wed 7 Oct	5.01	6.18	4.94	9.35	5.45	+0.07little changed	−0.44warmer
Thu 8 Oct	5.56	5.10	7.09	6.13	5.56	−1.53warmer	0.00warmer
Fri 9 Oct	13.31	8.95	9.03	6.59	6.07	+4.28cooler	+7.24cooler
Sat 10 Oct	19.58	8.93	6.18	5.40	3.71	+13.40cooler	+15.87cooler
Sun 11 Oct	15.72	6.75	13.68	10.66	7.53	+2.04cooler	+8.19cooler
Mon 12 Oct	8.39	10.43	16.98	10.09	9.39	−8.59warmer	−1.00warmer
Tue 13 Oct	10.81	9.76	9.01	10.76	3.24	+1.80cooler	+7.57cooler
Wed 14 Oct	11.59	4.11	4.48	12.51	—	+7.11cooler	—
Totals	141.58	116.31	125.37	128.73	94.20*	+16.21cooler	+35.79cooler

South Central · population-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 7.4on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

South Central · population-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	16.99	+7.20warmer	−0.70	+7.90	+0.03little changed	−0.10little changed
Thu 1 Oct	14.00	+4.41warmer	−0.76	+5.17	−0.23little changed	−0.34little changed
Fri 2 Oct	11.44	+2.01warmer	−0.61	+2.62	+0.26little changed	−0.25little changed
Sat 3 Oct	12.07	+2.86warmer	−0.87	+3.73	+2.25warmer	+2.37warmer
Sun 4 Oct	10.60	+1.59warmer	−0.97	+2.56	−0.39little changed	+1.68warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.36	+1.55warmer	−0.89	+2.44	+0.80warmer	+1.23warmer
Tue 6 Oct	7.83	−0.78warmer	−0.90	+0.12	+0.86warmer	+0.09little changed
Wed 7 Oct	7.80	−0.64warmer	−1.00	+0.36	+0.39warmer	−0.68mixed
Thu 8 Oct	8.37	+0.10warmer	−1.18	+1.28	+1.21warmer	+0.52warmer
Fri 9 Oct	8.23	+0.10warmer	−0.22	+0.32	−0.25cooler	+2.40warmer
Sat 10 Oct	5.56	−2.44colder	+2.91	−5.35	−1.21cooler	−1.46cooler
Sun 11 Oct	3.86	−3.99colder	+1.26	−5.25	−4.00cooler	−4.75cooler
Mon 12 Oct	5.28	−2.42colder	−0.85	−1.57	−1.75mixed	−2.71cooler
Tue 13 Oct	7.38	−0.16warmer	−0.78	+0.62	+1.12mixed	+3.75warmer
Wed 14 Oct	4.22	−3.17colder	+1.54	−4.71	−5.58cooler	—
Totals	133.99	+6.22warmer	−4.02	+10.24	−6.49cooler	+1.75cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	16.99	17.06	16.96	16.73	17.09	+0.03little changed	−0.10little changed
Thu 1 Oct	14.00	14.10	14.23	13.82	14.34	−0.23little changed	−0.34little changed
Fri 2 Oct	11.44	11.68	11.18	11.98	11.69	+0.26little changed	−0.25little changed
Sat 3 Oct	12.07	10.58	9.82	10.74	9.70	+2.25warmer	+2.37warmer
Sun 4 Oct	10.60	9.01	10.99	10.18	8.92	−0.39little changed	+1.68warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.36	7.66	9.56	9.31	9.13	+0.80warmer	+1.23warmer
Tue 6 Oct	7.83	4.74	6.97	7.37	7.74	+0.86warmer	+0.09little changed
Wed 7 Oct	7.80	4.84	7.41	6.81	8.48	+0.39warmer	−0.68mixed
Thu 8 Oct	8.37	6.47	7.16	5.29	7.85	+1.21warmer	+0.52warmer
Fri 9 Oct	8.23	6.99	8.48	3.19	5.83	−0.25cooler	+2.40warmer
Sat 10 Oct	5.56	4.20	6.77	2.77	7.02	−1.21cooler	−1.46cooler
Sun 11 Oct	3.86	3.89	7.86	4.22	8.61	−4.00cooler	−4.75cooler
Mon 12 Oct	5.28	3.97	7.03	4.17	7.99	−1.75mixed	−2.71cooler
Tue 13 Oct	7.38	5.64	6.26	6.44	3.63	+1.12mixed	+3.75warmer
Wed 14 Oct	4.22	8.92	9.80	9.17	—	−5.58cooler	—
Totals	133.99	119.75	140.48	122.19	128.02*	−6.49cooler	+1.75cooler

Mountain · population-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 12.3on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

Mountain · population-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	8.43	−2.64warmer	−1.82	−0.82	+0.29little changed	+0.14little changed
Thu 1 Oct	9.07	−2.04warmer	−2.36	+0.32	−0.03little changed	−0.21little changed
Fri 2 Oct	10.37	−0.76warmer	−3.18	+2.42	−0.20little changed	−0.53mixed
Sat 3 Oct	10.17	−1.00warmer	−4.73	+3.73	+0.16warmer	−0.35warmer
Sun 4 Oct	10.76	−0.50warmer	−4.59	+4.09	−0.07warmer	+0.02little changed
Mon 5 Oct	11.03	−0.32warmer	−4.84	+4.52	+0.29warmer	+0.85warmer
Tue 6 Oct	10.99	−0.44warmer	−5.54	+5.10	+0.12warmer	+0.92warmer
Wed 7 Oct	11.40	−0.14warmer	−6.11	+5.97	+0.46warmer	+0.64warmer
Thu 8 Oct	11.96	+0.31warmer	−5.16	+5.47	+1.24mixed	+0.68mixed
Fri 9 Oct	13.24	+1.52warmer	−2.93	+4.45	+3.49cooler	+2.99cooler
Sat 10 Oct	10.97	−0.89warmer	−4.95	+4.06	+2.09cooler	+1.72cooler
Sun 11 Oct	9.22	−2.76warmer	−6.37	+3.61	−0.33warmer	−1.13warmer
Mon 12 Oct	6.55	−5.52warmer	−7.60	+2.08	−2.48warmer	−2.35mixed
Tue 13 Oct	11.40	−0.79warmer	−4.85	+4.06	+3.25cooler	+3.05cooler
Wed 14 Oct	11.06	−1.26warmer	−6.57	+5.31	+2.03cooler	—
Totals	156.62	−17.23warmer	−71.60	+54.37	+10.31warmer	+6.44cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	8.43	8.50	8.14	7.48	8.29	+0.29little changed	+0.14little changed
Thu 1 Oct	9.07	8.81	9.10	8.71	9.28	−0.03little changed	−0.21little changed
Fri 2 Oct	10.37	10.41	10.57	10.28	10.90	−0.20little changed	−0.53mixed
Sat 3 Oct	10.17	9.79	10.01	10.19	10.52	+0.16warmer	−0.35warmer
Sun 4 Oct	10.76	10.94	10.83	11.64	10.74	−0.07warmer	+0.02little changed
Mon 5 Oct	11.03	10.67	10.74	11.30	10.18	+0.29warmer	+0.85warmer
Tue 6 Oct	10.99	9.57	10.87	11.39	10.07	+0.12warmer	+0.92warmer
Wed 7 Oct	11.40	11.12	10.94	11.83	10.76	+0.46warmer	+0.64warmer
Thu 8 Oct	11.96	9.56	10.72	12.40	11.28	+1.24mixed	+0.68mixed
Fri 9 Oct	13.24	9.42	9.75	10.59	10.25	+3.49cooler	+2.99cooler
Sat 10 Oct	10.97	8.92	8.88	9.47	9.25	+2.09cooler	+1.72cooler
Sun 11 Oct	9.22	8.78	9.55	10.86	10.35	−0.33warmer	−1.13warmer
Mon 12 Oct	6.55	10.14	9.03	9.94	8.90	−2.48warmer	−2.35mixed
Tue 13 Oct	11.40	8.03	8.15	9.19	8.35	+3.25cooler	+3.05cooler
Wed 14 Oct	11.06	7.92	9.03	8.72	—	+2.03cooler	—
Totals	156.62	142.58	146.31	153.99	139.12*	+10.31warmer	+6.44cooler

Pacific · population-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 6.9on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

Pacific · population-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	10.33	+3.20warmer	−1.20	+4.40	+0.39little changed	+0.28little changed
Thu 1 Oct	11.47	+4.37warmer	−1.29	+5.66	+0.26little changed	−0.04little changed
Fri 2 Oct	13.40	+6.34warmer	−1.65	+7.99	−0.17little changed	+0.35cooler
Sat 3 Oct	15.53	+8.53warmer	−2.11	+10.64	−0.17little changed	−0.25little changed
Sun 4 Oct	15.76	+8.79warmer	−2.50	+11.29	−0.10little changed	+0.06little changed
Mon 5 Oct	15.73	+8.75warmer	−2.77	+11.52	−0.05little changed	+0.25little changed
Tue 6 Oct	16.39	+9.43warmer	−2.44	+11.87	+0.18little changed	+0.01little changed
Wed 7 Oct	16.67	+9.75warmer	−2.42	+12.17	−0.23cooler	−0.56cooler
Thu 8 Oct	17.46	+10.53warmer	−2.88	+13.41	+0.62mixed	+0.94mixed
Fri 9 Oct	19.18	+12.28warmer	−3.48	+15.76	+1.23warmer	+2.38warmer
Sat 10 Oct	17.57	+10.68warmer	−3.54	+14.22	+0.27little changed	+0.15little changed
Sun 11 Oct	17.23	+10.32warmer	−3.75	+14.07	+2.16warmer	−0.04little changed
Mon 12 Oct	12.82	+5.94warmer	−3.82	+9.76	+0.87warmer	−2.38cooler
Tue 13 Oct	11.56	+4.67warmer	−4.04	+8.71	+1.07warmer	−1.13warmer
Wed 14 Oct	13.68	+6.81warmer	−4.15	+10.96	+4.84warmer	—
Totals	224.78	+120.39warmer	−42.04	+162.43	+11.17warmer	+0.02warmer

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	10.33	10.01	9.94	10.22	10.05	+0.39little changed	+0.28little changed
Thu 1 Oct	11.47	11.54	11.21	11.99	11.51	+0.26little changed	−0.04little changed
Fri 2 Oct	13.40	13.43	13.57	14.12	13.05	−0.17little changed	+0.35cooler
Sat 3 Oct	15.53	15.64	15.70	16.03	15.78	−0.17little changed	−0.25little changed
Sun 4 Oct	15.76	15.73	15.86	15.93	15.70	−0.10little changed	+0.06little changed
Mon 5 Oct	15.73	15.19	15.78	15.17	15.48	−0.05little changed	+0.25little changed
Tue 6 Oct	16.39	15.22	16.21	15.46	16.38	+0.18little changed	+0.01little changed
Wed 7 Oct	16.67	16.76	16.90	16.64	17.23	−0.23cooler	−0.56cooler
Thu 8 Oct	17.46	17.16	16.84	17.90	16.52	+0.62mixed	+0.94mixed
Fri 9 Oct	19.18	16.96	17.95	17.63	16.80	+1.23warmer	+2.38warmer
Sat 10 Oct	17.57	15.97	17.30	15.27	17.42	+0.27little changed	+0.15little changed
Sun 11 Oct	17.23	14.73	15.07	12.47	17.27	+2.16warmer	−0.04little changed
Mon 12 Oct	12.82	11.94	11.95	9.26	15.20	+0.87warmer	−2.38cooler
Tue 13 Oct	11.56	8.78	10.49	7.31	12.69	+1.07warmer	−1.13warmer
Wed 14 Oct	13.68	8.39	8.84	6.45	—	+4.84warmer	—
Totals	224.78	207.45	213.61	201.85	211.08*	+11.17warmer	+0.02warmer

National · gas-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 9.5on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

National · gas-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	7.02	−0.84warmer	−3.32	+2.48	−0.08little changed	+0.03little changed
Thu 1 Oct	7.93	−0.02warmer	−3.46	+3.44	−0.67cooler	−0.83cooler
Fri 2 Oct	9.17	+1.15warmer	−2.32	+3.47	−0.13little changed	−0.35cooler
Sat 3 Oct	8.61	+0.52warmer	−1.74	+2.26	+0.34little changed	−0.38little changed
Sun 4 Oct	8.21	+0.01warmer	−2.12	+2.13	−1.24warmer	−0.98warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.43	+2.12warmer	0.00	+2.12	−1.00warmer	+0.04little changed
Tue 6 Oct	12.26	+3.82mixed	+1.92	+1.90	+0.05little changed	+1.18cooler
Wed 7 Oct	10.06	+1.49warmer	−0.66	+2.15	−0.33warmer	−0.25little changed
Thu 8 Oct	8.33	−0.37warmer	−3.00	+2.63	−0.46warmer	−0.70warmer
Fri 9 Oct	10.65	+1.82warmer	−0.90	+2.72	−0.06little changed	+1.86mixed
Sat 10 Oct	13.46	+4.49colder	+2.81	+1.68	+3.34cooler	+5.02cooler
Sun 11 Oct	13.17	+4.07colder	+2.40	+1.67	+1.54cooler	+4.54cooler
Mon 12 Oct	9.05	−0.18warmer	−1.38	+1.20	−5.14warmer	−2.05mixed
Tue 13 Oct	9.30	−0.06warmer	−1.49	+1.43	−1.66warmer	+1.36cooler
Wed 14 Oct	8.74	−0.75warmer	−2.20	+1.45	+1.47cooler	—
Totals	146.39	+17.27warmer	−15.46	+32.73	−4.03warmer	+8.49cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	7.02	7.08	7.10	6.92	6.99	−0.08little changed	+0.03little changed
Thu 1 Oct	7.93	7.91	8.60	8.19	8.76	−0.67cooler	−0.83cooler
Fri 2 Oct	9.17	9.18	9.30	9.53	9.52	−0.13little changed	−0.35cooler
Sat 3 Oct	8.61	8.64	8.27	8.43	8.99	+0.34little changed	−0.38little changed
Sun 4 Oct	8.21	8.44	9.45	9.50	9.19	−1.24warmer	−0.98warmer
Mon 5 Oct	10.43	11.45	11.43	11.32	10.39	−1.00warmer	+0.04little changed
Tue 6 Oct	12.26	12.05	12.21	13.03	11.08	+0.05little changed	+1.18cooler
Wed 7 Oct	10.06	10.36	10.39	12.84	10.31	−0.33warmer	−0.25little changed
Thu 8 Oct	8.33	8.19	8.79	10.86	9.03	−0.46warmer	−0.70warmer
Fri 9 Oct	10.65	10.57	10.71	9.15	8.79	−0.06little changed	+1.86mixed
Sat 10 Oct	13.46	11.61	10.12	6.94	8.44	+3.34cooler	+5.02cooler
Sun 11 Oct	13.17	10.01	11.63	8.59	8.63	+1.54cooler	+4.54cooler
Mon 12 Oct	9.05	9.13	14.19	8.81	11.10	−5.14warmer	−2.05mixed
Tue 13 Oct	9.30	9.37	10.96	7.83	7.94	−1.66warmer	+1.36cooler
Wed 14 Oct	8.74	7.60	7.27	11.32	—	+1.47cooler	—
Totals	146.39	141.59	150.42	143.26	129.16*	−4.03warmer	+8.49cooler

East · gas-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 9.4on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

East · gas-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	3.81	−3.11warmer	−4.17	+1.06	−0.21little changed	−0.29cooler
Thu 1 Oct	6.37	−0.70warmer	−4.67	+3.97	−1.06cooler	−0.96cooler
Fri 2 Oct	8.28	+1.08warmer	−3.82	+4.90	−0.04cooler	−0.30cooler
Sat 3 Oct	5.89	−1.46mixed	−0.87	−0.59	+0.36little changed	−0.02cooler
Sun 4 Oct	5.07	−2.44mixed	−1.15	−1.29	−2.18warmer	−2.65warmer
Mon 5 Oct	7.45	−0.20colder	+0.82	−1.02	−2.71warmer	−1.06mixed
Tue 6 Oct	13.13	+5.30colder	+6.42	−1.12	−0.91warmer	+1.62cooler
Wed 7 Oct	10.86	+2.84colder	+4.14	−1.30	−1.11warmer	−0.03little changed
Thu 8 Oct	4.95	−3.26warmer	−2.11	−1.15	−1.05warmer	−3.10warmer
Fri 9 Oct	3.77	−4.64warmer	−3.82	−0.82	−5.32warmer	−3.57warmer
Sat 10 Oct	9.96	+1.35colder	+2.44	−1.09	−0.90mixed	+2.20cooler
Sun 11 Oct	13.50	+4.68colder	+5.76	−1.08	+3.76cooler	+9.03cooler
Mon 12 Oct	9.84	+0.81colder	+1.78	−0.97	−7.01warmer	−1.75mixed
Tue 13 Oct	7.06	−2.15warmer	−1.34	−0.81	−7.84warmer	−3.23warmer
Wed 14 Oct	4.87	−4.53warmer	−3.84	−0.69	−2.74warmer	—
Totals	114.81	−6.43warmer	−4.43	−2.00	−28.96warmer	−4.11cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	3.81	4.00	4.02	3.97	4.10	−0.21little changed	−0.29cooler
Thu 1 Oct	6.37	6.02	7.43	6.86	7.33	−1.06cooler	−0.96cooler
Fri 2 Oct	8.28	8.06	8.32	8.73	8.58	−0.04cooler	−0.30cooler
Sat 3 Oct	5.89	6.06	5.53	5.27	5.91	+0.36little changed	−0.02cooler
Sun 4 Oct	5.07	5.05	7.25	6.91	7.72	−2.18warmer	−2.65warmer
Mon 5 Oct	7.45	10.10	10.16	9.60	8.51	−2.71warmer	−1.06mixed
Tue 6 Oct	13.13	14.05	14.04	14.23	11.51	−0.91warmer	+1.62cooler
Wed 7 Oct	10.86	11.74	11.97	15.49	10.89	−1.11warmer	−0.03little changed
Thu 8 Oct	4.95	6.23	6.00	12.08	8.05	−1.05warmer	−3.10warmer
Fri 9 Oct	3.77	9.76	9.09	8.06	7.34	−5.32warmer	−3.57warmer
Sat 10 Oct	9.96	14.36	10.86	4.42	7.76	−0.90mixed	+2.20cooler
Sun 11 Oct	13.50	12.60	9.74	5.35	4.47	+3.76cooler	+9.03cooler
Mon 12 Oct	9.84	7.82	16.85	8.19	11.59	−7.01warmer	−1.75mixed
Tue 13 Oct	7.06	10.92	14.90	5.67	10.29	−7.84warmer	−3.23warmer
Wed 14 Oct	4.87	9.65	7.61	13.51	—	−2.74warmer	—
Totals	114.81	136.42	143.77	128.34	114.05*	−28.96warmer	−4.11cooler

Midwest · gas-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 11.6on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

Midwest · gas-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	4.64	−3.50warmer	−5.31	+1.81	−0.31little changed	+0.35little changed
Thu 1 Oct	5.26	−3.09warmer	−4.73	+1.64	−1.09cooler	−1.59cooler
Fri 2 Oct	6.96	−1.57mixed	−0.96	−0.61	−0.34little changed	−0.57mixed
Sat 3 Oct	6.17	−2.57warmer	−1.78	−0.79	−0.06warmer	−2.38warmer
Sun 4 Oct	5.89	−3.10warmer	−2.64	−0.46	−1.60warmer	−0.98warmer
Mon 5 Oct	11.34	+2.09colder	+3.13	−1.04	−0.58warmer	+0.60mixed
Tue 6 Oct	11.27	+1.74colder	+2.89	−1.15	+0.97cooler	+2.13cooler
Wed 7 Oct	5.34	−4.46warmer	−3.67	−0.79	−0.02little changed	−0.53warmer
Thu 8 Oct	5.73	−4.35warmer	−4.14	−0.21	−1.99warmer	+0.11warmer
Fri 9 Oct	14.59	+4.22colder	+5.10	−0.88	+4.73cooler	+7.90cooler
Sat 10 Oct	20.07	+9.46colder	+10.36	−0.90	+13.53cooler	+16.04cooler
Sun 11 Oct	15.94	+5.10colder	+5.90	−0.80	+1.19cooler	+7.67cooler
Mon 12 Oct	8.60	−2.49warmer	−1.78	−0.71	−8.87warmer	−1.67warmer
Tue 13 Oct	11.50	+0.18colder	+0.77	−0.59	+2.06cooler	+8.13cooler
Wed 14 Oct	12.28	+0.71colder	+1.25	−0.54	+7.51cooler	—
Totals	145.58	−1.63colder	+4.39	−6.02	+15.13cooler	+35.21cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	4.64	4.73	4.95	4.56	4.29	−0.31little changed	+0.35little changed
Thu 1 Oct	5.26	5.69	6.35	5.49	6.85	−1.09cooler	−1.59cooler
Fri 2 Oct	6.96	7.05	7.30	7.01	7.53	−0.34little changed	−0.57mixed
Sat 3 Oct	6.17	6.81	6.23	6.61	8.55	−0.06warmer	−2.38warmer
Sun 4 Oct	5.89	7.50	7.49	8.10	6.87	−1.60warmer	−0.98warmer
Mon 5 Oct	11.34	13.38	11.92	12.58	10.74	−0.58warmer	+0.60mixed
Tue 6 Oct	11.27	11.85	10.30	13.39	9.14	+0.97cooler	+2.13cooler
Wed 7 Oct	5.34	6.60	5.36	10.12	5.87	−0.02little changed	−0.53warmer
Thu 8 Oct	5.73	5.44	7.72	6.46	5.62	−1.99warmer	+0.11warmer
Fri 9 Oct	14.59	9.84	9.86	7.07	6.69	+4.73cooler	+7.90cooler
Sat 10 Oct	20.07	9.33	6.54	5.90	4.03	+13.53cooler	+16.04cooler
Sun 11 Oct	15.94	6.63	14.75	11.93	8.27	+1.19cooler	+7.67cooler
Mon 12 Oct	8.60	11.33	17.47	11.38	10.27	−8.87warmer	−1.67warmer
Tue 13 Oct	11.50	10.67	9.44	11.88	3.37	+2.06cooler	+8.13cooler
Wed 14 Oct	12.28	4.24	4.77	14.08	—	+7.51cooler	—
Totals	145.58	121.09	130.45	136.56	98.09*	+15.13cooler	+35.21cooler

South Central · gas-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 7.3on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

South Central · gas-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	15.95	+6.67warmer	−0.94	+7.61	−0.07little changed	−0.35little changed
Thu 1 Oct	12.82	+3.70warmer	−1.01	+4.71	−0.32little changed	−0.60cooler
Fri 2 Oct	10.13	+1.18warmer	−0.71	+1.89	+0.17little changed	−0.55cooler
Sat 3 Oct	11.05	+2.29warmer	−1.12	+3.41	+2.03warmer	+2.37warmer
Sun 4 Oct	9.92	+1.33warmer	−1.27	+2.60	−0.20little changed	+1.86warmer
Mon 5 Oct	9.66	+1.24warmer	−1.07	+2.31	+0.83warmer	+1.33warmer
Tue 6 Oct	7.31	−0.95warmer	−1.10	+0.15	+0.91warmer	+0.14little changed
Wed 7 Oct	7.51	−0.61warmer	−1.39	+0.78	+0.67warmer	−0.39little changed
Thu 8 Oct	8.15	+0.16warmer	−1.63	+1.79	+1.63warmer	+1.04warmer
Fri 9 Oct	8.07	+0.19near normal	+0.07	+0.12	+0.31cooler	+2.73mixed
Sat 10 Oct	6.10	−1.68colder	+3.29	−4.97	−0.13cooler	−0.30cooler
Sun 11 Oct	3.58	−4.07colder	+0.76	−4.83	−3.83cooler	−4.54cooler
Mon 12 Oct	4.73	−2.80mixed	−1.44	−1.36	−2.05warmer	−2.76cooler
Tue 13 Oct	7.18	−0.22warmer	−0.73	+0.51	+1.25cooler	+3.40mixed
Wed 14 Oct	4.89	−2.38colder	+1.85	−4.23	−4.13cooler	—
Totals	127.05	+4.05warmer	−6.44	+10.49	−2.93cooler	+3.38cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	15.95	16.06	16.02	15.83	16.30	−0.07little changed	−0.35little changed
Thu 1 Oct	12.82	12.93	13.14	12.71	13.42	−0.32little changed	−0.60cooler
Fri 2 Oct	10.13	10.48	9.96	10.89	10.68	+0.17little changed	−0.55cooler
Sat 3 Oct	11.05	9.63	9.02	9.92	8.68	+2.03warmer	+2.37warmer
Sun 4 Oct	9.92	8.31	10.12	9.43	8.06	−0.20little changed	+1.86warmer
Mon 5 Oct	9.66	7.06	8.83	8.59	8.33	+0.83warmer	+1.33warmer
Tue 6 Oct	7.31	4.38	6.40	6.95	7.17	+0.91warmer	+0.14little changed
Wed 7 Oct	7.51	4.48	6.84	6.22	7.90	+0.67warmer	−0.39little changed
Thu 8 Oct	8.15	5.86	6.52	4.88	7.11	+1.63warmer	+1.04warmer
Fri 9 Oct	8.07	6.29	7.76	3.05	5.34	+0.31cooler	+2.73mixed
Sat 10 Oct	6.10	3.94	6.23	2.58	6.40	−0.13cooler	−0.30cooler
Sun 11 Oct	3.58	3.31	7.41	3.92	8.12	−3.83cooler	−4.54cooler
Mon 12 Oct	4.73	3.88	6.78	3.95	7.49	−2.05warmer	−2.76cooler
Tue 13 Oct	7.18	5.38	5.93	6.24	3.78	+1.25cooler	+3.40mixed
Wed 14 Oct	4.89	8.88	9.02	9.06	—	−4.13cooler	—
Totals	127.05	110.87	129.98	114.22	118.78*	−2.93cooler	+3.38cooler

Mountain · gas-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 12.4on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

Mountain · gas-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	7.78	−2.41warmer	−1.85	−0.56	+0.21little changed	+0.36little changed
Thu 1 Oct	7.76	−2.53warmer	−2.72	+0.19	−0.06little changed	−0.08little changed
Fri 2 Oct	8.56	−1.82warmer	−3.76	+1.94	−0.12little changed	−0.45little changed
Sat 3 Oct	8.29	−2.21warmer	−5.54	+3.33	+0.19warmer	−0.15warmer
Sun 4 Oct	8.75	−1.90warmer	−5.42	+3.52	−0.13warmer	−0.04little changed
Mon 5 Oct	8.96	−1.85warmer	−5.75	+3.90	+0.23warmer	+0.74warmer
Tue 6 Oct	8.69	−2.27warmer	−6.43	+4.16	+0.01little changed	+0.49warmer
Wed 7 Oct	9.04	−2.11warmer	−7.12	+5.01	+0.45warmer	+0.51warmer
Thu 8 Oct	9.67	−1.65warmer	−6.01	+4.36	+1.03mixed	+0.66mixed
Fri 9 Oct	11.77	+0.30warmer	−3.42	+3.72	+3.82cooler	+3.61cooler
Sat 10 Oct	9.30	−2.37warmer	−5.91	+3.54	+2.03cooler	+2.08cooler
Sun 11 Oct	7.63	−4.23warmer	−7.40	+3.17	−0.65warmer	−1.06warmer
Mon 12 Oct	5.27	−6.77warmer	−8.76	+1.99	−2.63warmer	−2.04mixed
Tue 13 Oct	9.97	−2.25warmer	−5.62	+3.37	+3.40cooler	+3.21cooler
Wed 14 Oct	9.02	−3.39warmer	−7.73	+4.34	+1.94cooler	—
Totals	130.46	−37.46warmer	−83.44	+45.98	+9.72mixed	+7.84cooler

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	7.78	7.83	7.57	6.80	7.42	+0.21little changed	+0.36little changed
Thu 1 Oct	7.76	7.52	7.82	7.34	7.84	−0.06little changed	−0.08little changed
Fri 2 Oct	8.56	8.59	8.68	8.31	9.01	−0.12little changed	−0.45little changed
Sat 3 Oct	8.29	7.89	8.10	8.11	8.44	+0.19warmer	−0.15warmer
Sun 4 Oct	8.75	9.05	8.88	9.64	8.79	−0.13warmer	−0.04little changed
Mon 5 Oct	8.96	8.64	8.73	9.27	8.22	+0.23warmer	+0.74warmer
Tue 6 Oct	8.69	7.54	8.68	9.24	8.20	+0.01little changed	+0.49warmer
Wed 7 Oct	9.04	9.12	8.59	9.62	8.53	+0.45warmer	+0.51warmer
Thu 8 Oct	9.67	7.76	8.64	10.51	9.01	+1.03mixed	+0.66mixed
Fri 9 Oct	11.77	7.69	7.95	9.07	8.16	+3.82cooler	+3.61cooler
Sat 10 Oct	9.30	7.42	7.27	7.96	7.22	+2.03cooler	+2.08cooler
Sun 11 Oct	7.63	7.42	8.28	9.42	8.69	−0.65warmer	−1.06warmer
Mon 12 Oct	5.27	8.88	7.90	8.62	7.31	−2.63warmer	−2.04mixed
Tue 13 Oct	9.97	6.42	6.57	7.50	6.76	+3.40cooler	+3.21cooler
Wed 14 Oct	9.02	6.46	7.08	6.92	—	+1.94cooler	—
Totals	130.46	118.23	120.74	128.33	113.60*	+9.72mixed	+7.84cooler

Pacific · gas-weighted

Degree days per day, heating + cooling, base 65°F

HDD (heating)CDD (cooling)1991–2020 normal 6.3on 14 Oct

Strip: colder or warmer than normal

15-day table

Pacific · gas-weighted · changes against this model’s runs 12 and 24 hours earlier

Date	Forecast	vs normal	HDD vs normal	CDD vs normal	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
	This run				Change since earlier runs, same dates
Wed 30 Sep	10.75	+3.72warmer	−1.05	+4.77	+0.42little changed	+0.31little changed
Thu 1 Oct	11.96	+4.99warmer	−1.11	+6.10	+0.19little changed	−0.03little changed
Fri 2 Oct	14.13	+7.23warmer	−1.40	+8.63	−0.24little changed	+0.11cooler
Sat 3 Oct	16.63	+9.83warmer	−1.73	+11.56	−0.17little changed	−0.26little changed
Sun 4 Oct	16.96	+10.23warmer	−2.02	+12.25	−0.09little changed	+0.07little changed
Mon 5 Oct	16.89	+10.18warmer	−2.24	+12.42	−0.06little changed	+0.19little changed
Tue 6 Oct	17.56	+10.90warmer	−2.03	+12.93	+0.16little changed	−0.08little changed
Wed 7 Oct	17.86	+11.27warmer	−2.00	+13.27	−0.31cooler	−0.65cooler
Thu 8 Oct	18.84	+12.26warmer	−2.36	+14.62	+0.69warmer	+1.20warmer
Fri 9 Oct	20.71	+14.20warmer	−2.78	+16.98	+1.43warmer	+2.76warmer
Sat 10 Oct	18.81	+12.34warmer	−2.85	+15.19	+0.37little changed	+0.05little changed
Sun 11 Oct	18.44	+11.98warmer	−3.02	+15.00	+2.41warmer	−0.06little changed
Mon 12 Oct	13.41	+7.01warmer	−3.08	+10.09	+0.82warmer	−2.71cooler
Tue 13 Oct	11.92	+5.55warmer	−3.26	+8.81	+0.93warmer	−1.52mixed
Wed 14 Oct	14.35	+8.04warmer	−3.34	+11.38	+5.17warmer	—
Totals	239.22	+139.73warmer	−34.27	+174.00	+11.72warmer	−0.62warmer

Show earlier runsthis model’s forecasts 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours earlier, for the same dates

Date	This run	6 h earlier18Z 29 Sep	12 h earlier12Z 29 Sep	18 h earlier06Z 29 Sep	24 h earlier00Z 29 Sep	vs 12 h	vs 24 h
		Earlier runs, same dates				Change
Wed 30 Sep	10.75	10.41	10.33	10.61	10.44	+0.42little changed	+0.31little changed
Thu 1 Oct	11.96	12.00	11.77	12.39	11.99	+0.19little changed	−0.03little changed
Fri 2 Oct	14.13	14.26	14.37	14.85	14.02	−0.24little changed	+0.11cooler
Sat 3 Oct	16.63	16.73	16.80	17.16	16.89	−0.17little changed	−0.26little changed
Sun 4 Oct	16.96	16.93	17.05	17.15	16.89	−0.09little changed	+0.07little changed
Mon 5 Oct	16.89	16.31	16.95	16.32	16.70	−0.06little changed	+0.19little changed
Tue 6 Oct	17.56	16.25	17.40	16.52	17.64	+0.16little changed	−0.08little changed
Wed 7 Oct	17.86	17.99	18.17	17.88	18.51	−0.31cooler	−0.65cooler
Thu 8 Oct	18.84	18.51	18.15	19.34	17.64	+0.69warmer	+1.20warmer
Fri 9 Oct	20.71	18.23	19.28	19.01	17.95	+1.43warmer	+2.76warmer
Sat 10 Oct	18.81	17.16	18.44	16.43	18.76	+0.37little changed	+0.05little changed
Sun 11 Oct	18.44	15.78	16.03	13.37	18.50	+2.41warmer	−0.06little changed
Mon 12 Oct	13.41	12.47	12.59	9.85	16.12	+0.82warmer	−2.71cooler
Tue 13 Oct	11.92	8.67	10.99	7.67	13.44	+0.93warmer	−1.52mixed
Wed 14 Oct	14.35	8.02	9.18	6.77	—	+5.17warmer	—
Totals	239.22	219.72	227.50	215.32	225.49*	+11.72warmer	−0.62warmer

How to read this table

Degree days measure how far a day’s average temperature is below 65°F (heating degree days, HDD) or above it (cooling degree days, CDD). The figures are total degree days (HDD + CDD): more means more heating or cooling needed than on a mild day.
Words follow the temperature, from the heating/cooling split: warmth = CDD change − HDD change. Above +0.5 reads warmer; below −0.5 reads colder against normal, or cooler against an earlier run. In between it reads near normal (or little changed), or mixed when the total still moved by more than 0.5. When heating and cooling degree days both fall, the word follows whichever fell more in temperature terms; the number still says demand fell.
In autumn a day can have fewer degree days than normal and still be warmer: fewer heating degree days outweigh a few extra cooling ones. That is why a word can sit beside a number of either sign.
Bars under HDD and CDD vs normal are as long as the printed value (0.5, 2, 4 and 6+). Orange means fewer HDDs or more CDDs (warmer), blue means more HDDs or fewer CDDs (colder). The small square beside a change word is only that word’s colour.
Changes compare the same model’s run 12 or 24 hours earlier for the same date. Change totals add up only the days both runs forecast.
Each day is the local calendar day (standard time). GFS and GEFS build it from 6-hourly highs and lows.

That’s one run of one model, a week old.

Members see every run of all seven models as it’s published: GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, AIGFS, GEFS, AIFS Ens Mean and CFS. They compare the models side by side and see how each run changed since the one before, for the nation and the five EIA storage regions.

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