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Samples are a week old: today’s report is for members. The weekly commentary is free, always.
Wed 30 Sep 2026
Published 08:49 ET · all twelve sections
Colour = effect on prices:Colour = direction:SupportiveUpPressuringDownSmall move
Bearish = prices more likely to fall; Bullish = rise. Further from centre = stronger (40–85).
Estimates for EIA weeks not yet printed are held back in the free sample.
GFS 00Z run of Wed 30 Sep
National · population-weighted · published Wed 30 Sep, 03:25 ET
The word is the temperature. The number is degree days, a measure of demand: + means more gas needed for heating and cooling, − means less. The number’s colour is what that usually means for prices (grey = a small change). The number’s colour is which way it moved (grey = a small change).
| Region | 15 days | vs normal | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| EastHDD −0.6 / CDD −1.8 | 129.9 | −2.4 | Colder |
| MidwestHDD +4.2 / CDD −4.1 | 141.6 | +0.1 | Colder |
| South CentralHDD −4.0 / CDD +10.2 | 134.0 | +6.2 | Warmer |
| MountainHDD −71.6 / CDD +54.4 | 156.6 | −17.2 | Warmer |
| PacificHDD −42.0 / CDD +162.4 | 224.8 | +120.4 | Warmer |
Against 1991–2020 normals. The word follows the heating and cooling split: fewer heating or more cooling degree days than normal reads as warmer, even when the total is below normal. Mixed means colder and warmer signals roughly offset, but the total still moved by more than 0.5.
El Niño Warmth Tests the Winter Premium
- Pressuring, Cautious
- lean lower
- Balanced
- neutral
- Supportive, Constructive
- lean higher
One word per horizon in each Sunday post: and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, and Constructive lean higher. The daily report uses Bullish, Bearish or Neutral, and its colours use supportive and pressuring for the same direction.One word per horizon in each Sunday post: and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, and Constructive lean higher. The daily report uses Bullish, Bearish or Neutral.
Natural gas prices slipped about 6% last week as mild early-autumn weather kept heating demand low and the country kept adding gas to storage at a steady clip. Underground supplies are a little higher than normal for this time of year, though lower than a year ago. The bigger story is El Niño, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that tends to bring milder winters to the northern United States.
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