Bearish = prices more likely to fall than rise over that window; Bullish = more likely to rise. The further from the centre, the stronger the call: 40–50 lean · 50–65 clear call · 65–85 high conviction (Bearish and Bullish calls). A Neutral call sits in the middle; its word says whether it leans. Hollow ring = the Tue 29 Sep report; the arrow shows which way the call moved.Bearish = prices more likely to fall; Bullish = rise. Further from centre = stronger (40–85). Hollow ring = Tue 29 Sep.
Colour = what it usually means for pricesColour = which way it movedSupportiveUpPressuringDownSmall move
| Measure | Latest | Day change | vs normal | vs a year ago | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storagedaily estimate | 3,471.2 Bcf+75.4, usually pressures prices, up vs 5-yr avg | ↑ 4.2 Bcf† (against 29 Sep as revised)about normal, a small movevs 5-yr avg +5.0 | +75.4 Bcf, usually pressures prices, up5-yr avg | −123.4 Bcf, usually supports prices, down | |
| Productiondry gas, first reading | 108.4 Bcf/d−2.2, usually supports prices, down vs 30-day avg | Unchanged, a small move | −2.2 Bcf/d, usually supports prices, down30-day avg | +1.7 Bcf/d, usually pressures prices, up | |
| LNG feedgas | 17.6 Bcf/d89% of capacity (usual 92%) | ↓ 0.1pressuring, usually pressures prices, down | 89% of capacity(usual 92%) | +1.4, a small move | |
| Total supply | 113.6 Bcf/d−1.2, usually supports prices, down vs 30-day avg | ↑ 0.1small change, a small move | −1.2, usually supports prices, down30-day avg | +1.3, usually pressures prices, up | |
| Total demandearly reading | 102.4 Bcf/d−4.1, usually pressures prices, down vs 30-day avg | ↓ 0.5† (against 29 Sep as revised)small change, a small move | −4.1, usually pressures prices, down30-day avg | +2.7, usually supports prices, up | |
| Balancesupply − demand | +11.2 Bcf/d+2.9, usually pressures prices, up vs 30-day avg | ↑ 0.6† (against 29 Sep as revised)small change, a small move | +2.9, usually pressures prices, up30-day avg | — | |
| Power burnearly reading | 37.9 Bcf/d−3.5, usually pressures prices, down vs 30-day avg | ↓ 0.1† (against 29 Sep as revised)small change, a small move | −3.5, usually pressures prices, down30-day avg | — | |
| Degree daysGFS 06Z 30 Sep · 15-day | 136.3 TDD+3.7, a small move vs normal | Warmer−11.7, usually pressures prices, down vs 24 h earlier | Warmer+3.7, a small move vs normal | — | Runs |
Against 29 Sep as revised since the last report.
Revised since the last report: 29 Sep storage 3,459.5 → 3,467.0 · 29 Sep demand 102.7 → 102.9 · 29 Sep power burn 37.8 → 38.0
Week ending 25 Sep
EIA printed +64: 16 Bcf below, usually supports prices the 5-year average, a smaller build than usual for the week.
This report’s estimate (+64) matched the print; the 5-yr average (+80) was 16 Bcf above.
The print before, week ending 18 Sep: EIA +53 vs our +59
Bearish 55 for the next 1–3 months; Bearish 40, then Neutral 45 beyond.
Bearish = prices more likely to fall; Bullish = rise. Further from centre = stronger (40–85). Hollow ring = Tue 29 Sep.
A warm-north autumn and a rich December keep Oct–Dec bearish.
Jan–Mar still tilts bearish, but a disruption risk has sharply cut conviction.
And Apr–Sep 2027 sits at neutral leaning soft, with risk and production headroom set against LNG exports at capacity.
October is a month that usually trades flat to soft, and a warm-north start keeps it that way. November normally firms as builds, but a mild month across the Midwest and East takes away that pre-winter , so I read it neutral to bearish. December depends on weather, and with the northern tier running warm, the $3.35 contract looks rich against a heating-demand start that is probably late. Below-normal injections and LNG maxed out on huge international spreads keep a floor under prices and limit conviction, but the net for the slice is a bearish lean.
Bearish conviction is sharply lower because the January stratospheric weakening signal is getting firmer. Meanwhile the split-flow winter pattern keeps the South and parts of the East cooler under an active subtropical jet, which raises the risk of a late Jan to Feb cold outbreak against a Jan contract at $3.719.
Jan and Feb are peak-withdrawal months and move with the weather. A canonical Super still points bearish through a warm Great Lakes and upper Midwest heating core, but the split flow keeps the South and East cooler, and a real polar-vortex disruption signal leaves a meaningful cold-outbreak tail in late Jan and Feb. March usually softens, and the $2.729 contract already prices that. Starting winter with storage in still tilts the slice bearish, but the cold tail and maxed-out LNG pull leave that tilt far from decisive: a Bearish 40 lean with two-sided risk.
The Apr–May months usually run bearish with injections and no weather demand, and a winter that starts with storage in makes a loose exit more likely than a tight one, though April at $2.634 already prices much of that. Jun–Aug is the bullish cooling part of the year, but with fading there is no strong heat signal yet, and production sitting about 3.4 Bcf/d under its one-year 7-day high should cap rallies. Growing LNG demand from new trains is the main support. Net, the slice reads Neutral 45, tilting bearish but not yet decisive.
Not financial advice.
Our estimate for the week ending 25 Sep was +64 Bcf; EIA printed +64. The weeks EIA hadn’t reported yet are for members.
This is the free sample. Our estimates for weeks EIA hadn’t reported yet, and the projected storage path, are for members. In the table they show as a lock. Weeks EIA has reported show our estimate beside the print.
Weekly change, Bcf
| Week ending | Ours | 5-yr | vs 5-yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep | +64EIA +64 | +80 | −16supportive, usually supports prices, down |
| 2 Oct | +96 | ||
| 9 Oct | +90 | ||
| 16 Oct | +87 | ||
| 23 Oct | +77 | ||
| 30 Octseason end | +61 | ||
| 6 Nov | +40 | ||
| 13 Nov | +15 | ||
| 8 weeks | +546 |
Weeks EIA has printed show its figure under ours.
Colour = effect on prices:Colour = direction:SupportiveUpPressuringDownSmall move
Weeks ending 25 Sep – 13 Nov 2026 · Bcf
Above normal +75.4 Bcf vs 5-yr (+2.2%), usually pressures prices, up
Daily estimate 3,471.2 Bcf against the 5-yr average of 3,395.8 for the same date.
The surplus is shrinking: −19.4 Bcf in the 7 days to 29 Sep, 7 weeks in a row.
Surplus or deficit to the 5-yr average, Bcf
Slower than normal −2.7 Bcf/d vs the 5-yr pace, usually supports prices, down
7-day average +10.0 vs the 5-yr pace +12.7, to 29 Sep (the last settled day).
At that pace the surplus shrinks by about 19 Bcf a week.
Daily change in storage, Bcf · daily estimate
Grey bars are EIA Thursdays, when the daily estimate is re-based to EIA’s print. The hollow last bar is the report day, still building. The 5-yr pace is how fast the 5-yr average level was rising (or falling) over the same 7 days. Totals and both lines run through 29 Sep, the last settled day.
Looser than its 30-day average +2.9 Bcf/d, usually pressures prices, up
Supply 113.6 − demand 102.4 = +11.2 Bcf/d going into storage; higher than on 83% of days in the past year.
Supply and demand, Bcf/d
Balance, supply − demand, Bcf/d
If the last 30 days’ straight-line trend held, supply would average 111.7 Bcf/d and demand 100.7 over the next 14 days (a balance near +11.0). This is arithmetic, not a weather forecast; it starts from the average of the last 5 settled days (through 29 Sep), not the report day’s early reading.
The trend of the last 30 settled days, drawn as a straight line from their last 5-day average and carried 14 days forward. It ignores weather and season.
1 Sep 2026 – 14 Oct 2026 · 30 days actual, 14 projected · Bcf/d
Below its 30-day average −2.2 Bcf/d, usually supports prices, down
First reading 108.4 vs the 30-day average 110.6.
Dry gas production, Bcf/d
Below its 30-day average −0.4 Bcf/d, usually pressures prices, down
17.6 Bcf/d, 89% of export capacity (usual 92%).
Feedgas to US LNG export plants, Bcf/d
Net flow above its 30-day average +0.4 Bcf/d, usually pressures prices, up
Net exporter: Mexico 7.0 out, Canada 5.2 in.
Net flow, imports − exports, Bcf/d
Canada imports, Bcf/d
Mexico exports, Bcf/d
Power burn below its 30-day average −3.5 Bcf/d, usually pressures prices, down
37.9 (early reading) vs 41.4.
Bcf/d · each panel on its own scale
Contango peak Jan 2027 $3.719
Nov 2026 down 4.3% on the week.
Winter months are priced highest, where heating demand peaks.
Price by contract month, $/MMBtu
NYMEX natural gas, Nov 2026 – Apr 2027 · $/MMBtu · change vs the 23 Sep report (as printed)
Overseas gas 7.7–8.4× the US price
TTF 8.0× · NBP 7.7× · JKM 8.4×.
Higher overseas prices keep US LNG exports in demand.
| Market | Price | Day | Week | Month | Last 30 reports | vs 50-dayaveragetrend | Spreadto Henry Hub, $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub futuresNov 2026 (NGX26) | $3.018$/MMBtu | ↑ 0.2%, a small move | ↓ 4.3%, down | ↓ 1.5%, a small move | −0.7%trend up | — | |
| Dutch TTFFront month | €72.40€/MWh= $24.14/MMBtu | ↑ 4.2%, up | ↑ 0.8%, a small move | ↑ 4.1%, a small move | +7.9%trend down | +$21.12 | |
| UK NBPFront month | $23.34$/MMBtu | ↓ 3.9%, down | ↓ 4.1%, down | — | +4.8%trend down | +$20.32 | |
| Asia JKMFront month | $25.43$/MMBtu | ↓ 2.5%, down | ↓ 2.4%, down | — | +9.3%trend up | +$22.42 |
vs 50-day avg −0.7% · trend up
vs 50-day avg +7.9% · trend down
vs 50-day avg +4.8% · trend down
vs 50-day avg +9.3% · trend up
Day, week and month are changes against the close 1, 5 and 21 trading days earlier. Green: the price rose; red: it fell; grey: a move smaller than half that market’s usual move over the past year. Trend: 5-day vs 20-day average. Spreads are $/MMBtu over Henry Hub, November 2026 (NGX26). TTF is quoted in €/MWh and converted at that day’s euro–dollar rate (1 MWh = 3.412 MMBtu). TTF, NBP and JKM follow whichever month is front, so a change can jump when that contract rolls.
Last 30 reports: the price each report printed, 1 Sep to 30 Sep.
Henry Hub delayed as of 08:47 ET; TTF, NBP and JKM at their latest price then, which can be an earlier session’s close
How to read the charts and colours, what each section measures, and what the terms mean.
EIA weekly storage · daily estimates of supply, demand and storage · NYMEX natural gas futures (delayed) · TTF, NBP, JKM · degree days base 65°F against NOAA 1991–2020 normals
Colour = effect on prices:Colour = direction:SupportiveUpPressuringDownSmall move
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means the move usually supports natural-gas prices; red means it usually weighs on them. More production is red because extra supply tends to push prices down. More LNG feedgas is green because exports take gas out of the US market. Storage is judged against the 5-year average for the same date, so a normal-sized build stays grey. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). It’s a rule of thumb, not a forecast: the outlook weighs everything together. Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by what it means for prices, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means it went up, red that it went down; prices are green when they rise. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by which way it moved, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Thresholds are half the usual move over the past year, recomputed monthly; last on 5 Oct 2026.
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