5 posts · All commentary
Natural gas ripped to a 2.5-month high on confirmed summer heat last week, but a near-certain warm winter keeps the back of the curve heavy heading into June.
1–3 mo Supportive was Balanced6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
Front-month natural gas gave back the late-May heat-dome bid as Memorial Day cooled the East and the 26-27 mild-winter case got harder to ignore.
3–6 mo Balanced was Supportive
Natural gas rallied to a six-week high near $2.96 as production rolled and El Niño Watch went official, but a fat storage surplus capped the shoulder.
3–6 mo Supportive was Constructive6–12 mo Pressuring was Cautious
Thursday's 63 Bcf injection printed well below consensus, but a heavy storage cushion and soft shoulder kept Henry Hub anchored in the high $2.70s.
6–12 mo Cautious was Pressuring
An 11-week low in dry output and a Cameron LNG feedgas dip lifted the front, but deep summer contango shows the heat bid is still parked further out the curve.
The first post in the series: 1–3 mo Balanced · 3–6 mo Constructive · 6–12 mo Pressuring
See a full daily report, exactly as members saw it a week ago.
Open a sample reportArrows show which way each number moved. Green means the move usually supports natural-gas prices; red means it usually weighs on them. More production is red because extra supply tends to push prices down. More LNG feedgas is green because exports take gas out of the US market. Storage is judged against the 5-year average for the same date, so a normal-sized build stays grey. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). It’s a rule of thumb, not a forecast: the outlook weighs everything together. Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by what it means for prices, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means it went up, red that it went down; prices are green when they rise. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by which way it moved, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Thresholds last worked out on 5 Oct 2026 from the year before.