Method

Where every number in the Daily Report comes from, how the storage estimate and the outlook are made, and how they have done.

Last updated 7 Oct 2026

On this page

Where the data comes from

Every figure on the site traces back to one of these.

Storage. EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, the official Thursday figure, and a daily storage estimate between prints.
Supply and demand. Daily dry-gas production, LNG feedgas, pipeline flows to Canada and Mexico, and demand by sector (including power burn), as daily estimates. Report-day demand and power burn are early readings, usually revised the next day.
Weather. Degree days computed from seven weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, AIGFS, GEFS, AIFS Ens Mean and CFS) against NOAA NCEI 1991–2020 normals, base 65°F.
Prices. NYMEX natural gas futures (delayed quotes) for the front month and the curve; Dutch TTF, UK NBP and Asian JKM for the international comparison, shown in $/MMBtu.
Weekly commentary. The week’s seven daily outlooks and the week’s public market news.

When things are published

The Daily Report: Every day of the week. Since 10 Jul the median weekday report was published at 09:22 ET (55 of 64 by 10:30 ET) and the median weekend report at 12:40 ET. A report waits until all ten core data series for the gas day are in, rather than publish blanks.
EIA storage report: Thursdays 10:30 ET (holiday weeks shift).
Weekly commentary: Sunday morning (US time).
Degree days: Model runs land through the day: GFS, ECMWF AIFS, AIGFS, GEFS and AIFS Ens Mean four times a day, ECMWF twice, CFS once.

A Discord alert goes to members as each daily report is published. The site keeps the last 30 daily reports and 90 days of degree-day pages.

The storage estimate

Two kinds of storage figure appear on the site, and each one is labelled so you can tell them apart:

EIA official · week ending 25 Sep: The weekly storage number EIA publishes on Thursday at 10:30 ET. The report compares it with EIA’s 5-year average for the same week.
Daily estimate · 7 Oct: A daily estimate of storage between EIA prints (not our weekly EIA estimate in section 02). The report day is an intraday reading; the day before it is settled.

Each Daily Report carries our estimate of the next eight EIA weekly changes, and a projection to the end of the season. The track record below scores the estimate in the last report published before each Thursday print.

Track record

Over the last 16 EIA prints (weeks ending 12 Jun to 25 Sep), our estimate missed by 6.4 Bcf on average. It was within ±10 Bcf on 13 of them, and the worst miss was 13 Bcf. Using the EIA 5-year average change as the estimate would have missed by 12.6 Bcf on average.

Week ending	Printed	Ours	EIA	Our miss	5-yr avg	5-yr miss
25 Sep	Thu 1 Oct	+64	+64	0	+80	+16
18 Sep	Thu 24 Sep	+59	+53	+6	+76	+23
11 Sep	Thu 17 Sep	+45	+44	+1	+74	+30
4 Sep	Thu 10 Sep	+29	+40	−11	+52	+12
28 Aug	Thu 3 Sep	+25	+30	−5	+37	+7
21 Aug	Thu 27 Aug	+25	+15	+10	+33	+18
14 Aug	Thu 20 Aug	+29	+16	+13	+35	+19
7 Aug	Thu 13 Aug	+30	+36	−6	+30	−6
31 Jul	Thu 6 Aug	+31	+33	−2	+23	−10
24 Jul	Thu 30 Jul	+41	+28	+13	+31	+3
17 Jul	Thu 23 Jul	+31	+32	−1	+25	−7
10 Jul	Thu 16 Jul	+51	+41	+10	+37	−4
3 Jul	Thu 9 Jul	+52	+61	−9	+48	−13
26 Jun	Thu 2 Jul	+91	+87	+4	+60	−27
19 Jun	Thu 25 Jun	+86	+76	+10	+73	−3
12 Jun	Thu 18 Jun	+74	+73	+1	+70	−3

Week ending	Ours	EIA	Miss	5-yr avg
25 Sep	+64	+64	0	+80
18 Sep	+59	+53	+6	+76
11 Sep	+45	+44	+1	+74
4 Sep	+29	+40	−11	+52
28 Aug	+25	+30	−5	+37
21 Aug	+25	+15	+10	+33
14 Aug	+29	+16	+13	+35
7 Aug	+30	+36	−6	+30
31 Jul	+31	+33	−2	+23
24 Jul	+41	+28	+13	+31
17 Jul	+31	+32	−1	+25
10 Jul	+51	+41	+10	+37
3 Jul	+52	+61	−9	+48
26 Jun	+91	+87	+4	+60
19 Jun	+86	+76	+10	+73
12 Jun	+74	+73	+1	+70

Net change, Bcf. EIA prints at 10:30 ET. Miss = our estimate minus EIA’s print; misses larger than 10 Bcf are in bold. Our estimate is the one in the last report published before each print. The benchmark is the EIA 5-year average change, not an analyst consensus.

The outlook

Every Daily Report opens with a call for three horizons: the next 1–3, 3–6 and 6–12 months.

Call: The report’s direction for a time window: Bullish (prices likely to rise), Bearish (likely to fall) or Neutral.
Strength: How strongly the call is held, 40 to 85: 40–50 a lean, 50–65 a clear call, 65–85 high conviction. A Neutral call can still lean one way, shown as “Neutral, leaning bearish”.

The outlook is written every day from that day’s data: the day’s data first, then a check against the previous day’s calls, noting what changed since yesterday. A call is listed as changed only when its direction flips or its strength moves into another band.

The weekly commentary is written each Sunday from the week’s seven daily outlooks and the week’s public market news. It uses five direction words per horizon: Pressuring and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, Supportive and Constructive lean higher. A Bullish daily call maps to Supportive or Constructive, Neutral to Balanced and Bearish to Cautious or Pressuring.

Nothing on the site is financial advice. Trading natural gas futures involves substantial risk.

Reading the report

Three things are drawn the same way wherever they appear: the outlook calls, the colours on the changes and the lines on the charts. Each report’s How to read button explains them again with that day’s figures.

How the outlook calls are drawn

Each window has a track from bearish on the left to bullish on the right, and the filled marker is the call. A Neutral call sits in the grey middle third (in its centre, or halfway out to that third’s edge when it leans one way); a Bearish or Bullish call starts at that edge at strength 40 and reaches the end of the track at 85, with ticks at 50 and 65 where it becomes a clear call and then high conviction.

Example · the free sample, Wed 30 Sep

Open it

Next 1–3 months, September to December 2026: Bearish, strength 55, a clear call. Unchanged since the last report.

Next 3–6 months, December 2026 to March 2027: Bearish, strength 40, a lean. Less bearish −17, was 57, a clear call.

Next 6–12 months, March to September 2027: Neutral, strength 45, leaning bearish. Unchanged since the last report.

Bearish = prices more likely to fall than rise over that window; Bullish = more likely to rise. The further from the centre, the stronger the call: 40–50 lean · 50–65 clear call · 65–85 high conviction (Bearish and Bullish calls). A Neutral call sits in the middle; its word says whether it leans. Hollow ring = the Tue 29 Sep report; the arrow shows which way the call moved.Bearish = prices more likely to fall; Bullish = rise. Further from centre = stronger (40–85). Hollow ring = Tue 29 Sep.

Reading the colours

Colour = what it usually means for pricesColour = which way it movedSupportiveUpPressuringDownSmall move

Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means the move usually supports natural-gas prices; red means it usually weighs on them. More production is red because extra supply tends to push prices down. More LNG feedgas is green because exports take gas out of the US market. Storage is judged against the 5-year average for the same date, so a normal-sized build stays grey. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). It’s a rule of thumb, not a forecast: the outlook weighs everything together. Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by what it means for prices, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.

Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means it went up, red that it went down; prices are green when they rise. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by which way it moved, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.

Thresholds last worked out on 5 Oct 2026 from the year before.

Example · the free sample, Wed 30 Sep

Open it

Production: Unchanged, a small move
LNG feedgas: ↓ 0.1 Bcf/dpressuring, usually pressures prices, down
Total supply: ↑ 0.1 Bcf/dsmall change, a small move

Day changes from that report’s Fundamentals at a glance, each against the day before.

Day change	A rise usually	Grey below
Storagejudged against the 5-yr average’s change that day	Pressures prices	1.8 Bcf
Production	Pressures prices	0.2 Bcf/d
LNG feedgas	Supports prices	0.1 Bcf/d
Total supply	Pressures prices	0.2 Bcf/d
Total demand	Supports prices	1.1 Bcf/d
Balancesupply minus demand	Pressures prices	1.2 Bcf/d
Power burn	Supports prices	0.7 Bcf/d
Degree days15-day total against the run 24 h earlier	Supports prices	3.9 TDD

Grey below: half the median daily move over the year to 5 Oct 2026, compared at the precision the figure is printed, and worked out again each month. Gaps to normal and to a year ago have their own thresholds, found the same way. Prices keep their own direction: the front month is green when it rises, red when it falls, and grey under 1.1% in a day.

Day change	Grey below
Storagethe daily estimate against the day before	4.9 Bcf
Production	0.2 Bcf/d
LNG feedgas	0.1 Bcf/d
Total supply	0.2 Bcf/d
Total demand	1.1 Bcf/d
Balancesupply minus demand	1.2 Bcf/d
Power burn	0.7 Bcf/d
Degree days15-day total against the run 24 h earlier	3.9 TDD

Lines on the charts

Every chart draws the same kinds of line in the same way, in the dark and the light report alike. The normal is always the dotted line, with its value and name at the right-hand end: the 5-year average for storage, the 30-day average for daily flows and the 1991–2020 normal for degree days.

Measured Solid line in the measure’s colour: what actually happened.

Normal Dotted line, labelled at the right: the yardstick (5-yr average, 30-day average, 1991–2020 normal).

Projected Dashed line in the measure’s colour: our projection, not a reading.

Comparison Thin grey line: another period for context (a year ago, last week’s settle).

Smoothed Faint line in the measure’s colour: its own 5- or 7-day average.

Above / below normal Tint above the dotted line, hatch below. Only where the gap to a true normal is the story.

Degree days

Degree days per station (base 65°F) from ~300 airport stations, weighted by population or by gas-heating homes, for the nation and the five EIA storage regions. Normals: NOAA NCEI 1991–2020. Trends compare the same target dates with the run 12 or 24 hours earlier (dates both runs cover).

Regions: National, East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain, Pacific (the five EIA storage regions and the nation).
Weighting: Population-weighted: degree days averaged by where people live. Gas-weighted: degree days averaged by where homes heat with gas.
Forecast length: 15 days ahead from each run (14 for the ECMWF family, whose files start later in the day).
Wording: Against normal, the viewer says “warmer than normal” or “colder than normal” from the temperatures behind the degree days, so the word always matches the weather.

GFSDeterministic · 4 runs a day ( 06Z 12Z 18Z)NOAA/NCEP GFS
ECMWFDeterministic · 2 runs a day (00Z 12Z)Contains modified ECMWF open data (c) ECMWF, CC-BY-4.0
ECMWF AIFSAIDeterministic · 4 runs a day (00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z)Contains modified ECMWF open data (AIFS) (c) ECMWF, CC-BY-4.0
AIGFS (NOAA AI)AIDeterministic · 4 runs a day (00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z)NOAA/NCEP AIGFS (AI forecast system)
GEFS Ens MeanEnsemble mean · 4 runs a day (00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z)NOAA/NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
ECMWF AIFS Ens MeanAIEnsemble mean · 4 runs a day (00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z)Contains modified ECMWF open data (AIFS-ENS) (c) ECMWF, CC-BY-4.0
CFS (Long-Range)Long-range · 1 run a day (00Z)NOAA/NCEP CFSv2

Model	Runs a day	Source
GFSDeterministic	4 06Z 12Z 18Z	NOAA/NCEP GFS
ECMWFDeterministic	200Z 12Z	Contains modified ECMWF open data (c) ECMWF, CC-BY-4.0
ECMWF AIFSAIDeterministic	400Z 06Z 12Z 18Z	Contains modified ECMWF open data (AIFS) (c) ECMWF, CC-BY-4.0
AIGFS (NOAA AI)AIDeterministic	400Z 06Z 12Z 18Z	NOAA/NCEP AIGFS (AI forecast system)
GEFS Ens MeanEnsemble mean	400Z 06Z 12Z 18Z	NOAA/NCEP GEFS ensemble mean
ECMWF AIFS Ens MeanAIEnsemble mean	400Z 06Z 12Z 18Z	Contains modified ECMWF open data (AIFS-ENS) (c) ECMWF, CC-BY-4.0
CFS (Long-Range)Long-range	100Z	NOAA/NCEP CFSv2

23 model runs a day in all; run times are UTC. AI model: A weather model built with machine learning (AIFS, AIFS-ENS, AIGFS) instead of a traditional physics model. Ensemble mean: The average of many runs of the same model started slightly differently; smoother than a single run.

Publishing record

274 of 278 days have a published report since 3 Jan 2026. The days with no report: Sun 24 May, Fri 26 Jun, Sat 27 Jun, Sun 28 Jun. On those days the data for the day wasn’t available, and a report with blanks is never sent.

Weekdays: Median 09:22 ET. By 09:30 ET on 36 of the 64 weekdays since 10 Jul, and by 10:30 ET on 55.
Weekends: Median 12:40 ET. By 15:00 ET on 22 of the 26 weekend days since 10 Jul.

Reports for 10 Jul to 7 Oct 2026, timed from when each report was first published.

Glossary

Bcf: Billion cubic feet of natural gas.
Bcf/d: Billion cubic feet per day (a flow rate).
5-year average: The average for the same week over the previous five years, as EIA publishes it for the weekly figure; for the daily estimate, the 5-year average for the same calendar date.
Front month: The nearest NYMEX natural gas futures month still trading (e.g. the October 2026 contract, code NGV26). It stops trading on the third-last business day of the month before; the next month then becomes the front month (a “roll”).
Settle: The official end-of-day futures price.
Contango: Later months priced above the front month.
Call: The report’s direction for a time window: Bullish (prices likely to rise), Bearish (likely to fall) or Neutral.
Strength: How strongly the call is held, 40 to 85: 40–50 a lean, 50–65 a clear call, 65–85 high conviction.
EIA print: The weekly storage number EIA publishes on Thursday at 10:30 ET.
w/e: Week ending: the Friday that closes an EIA storage week.
Daily storage estimate: A daily estimate of storage between EIA prints (not our weekly EIA estimate in section 02). The report day is an intraday reading; the day before it is settled.
HDD / CDD: Heating / cooling degree days: how far the day’s average temperature is below / above 65°F. More degree days = more weather-driven gas demand.
TDD: Total degree days, HDD + CDD.
Population-weighted: Degree days averaged by where people live.
Gas-weighted: Degree days averaged by where homes heat with gas.
Ensemble mean: The average of many runs of the same model started slightly differently; smoother than a single run.
AI model: A weather model built with machine learning (AIFS, AIFS-ENS, AIGFS) instead of a traditional physics model.
Early reading: Report-day demand and power burn are early readings, usually revised the next day.
First reading and final: The first reading of a day’s production comes out on the day; the revised figure the next day is the final.
Capacity use: LNG feedgas as a share of US export-plant capacity.
Net flow: Pipeline imports from Canada minus pipeline exports to Mexico. Below zero, the US sends out more gas by pipeline than it takes in.
20-day average: The mean of the last 20 daily readings. It smooths out day-to-day noise.
Likely range: One standard deviation of the last 30 days either side of the projection, widening to 1.5 times by day 14. A statistical range, not a forecast.
Spread to Henry Hub: The market’s price in $/MMBtu minus the Henry Hub front contract’s price.
Trend: Up when the 5-day average is above the 20-day average, down when it is below.
Projection confidence: How steady the last 30 days were: High when their day-to-day spread is under 2% of their average, Medium under 5%, Low above that. It says nothing about the weather ahead.
Henry Hub: The Louisiana pipeline hub where the NYMEX natural gas contract is delivered; the US benchmark price.
MMBtu: Million British thermal units, the unit US gas is priced in; roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas.
Contract roll: When the front month stops trading and the next month takes its place.
Prompt: The front month; “prompt contract” means the same.
Month codes: CME letters for delivery months: F Jan, G Feb, H Mar, J Apr, K May, M Jun, N Jul, Q Aug, U Sep, V Oct, X Nov, Z Dec. NGV26 = natural gas, October 2026.
Strip: A run of futures months priced together, e.g. the winter strip = November to March.
Winter premium: How much more the winter months cost than the months before them.
Bid: Buying interest that holds a price up (“a winter bid”).
Backwardation: Later months priced below the front month (the opposite of contango).
Shoulder season: The spring and autumn months between heating and cooling seasons, when weather demand is lowest.
Injection / withdrawal: Gas going into / coming out of storage. Injection season runs April to October, withdrawal season November to March.
Build / draw: A week’s net injection / net withdrawal, as EIA reports it.
Surplus / deficit (to the 5-yr): How far storage is above / below the 5-year average for the same date.
End of season: The last EIA week of injection season (end of October) or withdrawal season (end of March); the level then is watched as the winter or summer starting point.
Balance: Supply minus demand. Positive means gas is going into storage; over the past year it has moved with the daily storage change (correlation 0.96 over 300 settled days), though a single day can differ by a few Bcf/d.
Power burn: Gas burned to make electricity.
LNG feedgas: Gas piped into LNG export plants to be cooled into liquid and shipped abroad.
Dry gas production: Marketable gas after liquids are removed; the headline production figure.
Residential / commercial: Gas used in homes and businesses, mostly for heating.
TTF / NBP / JKM: The Dutch, UK and Asian (Japan-Korea Marker) benchmark gas prices.
El Niño / La Niña: Warm / cool phases of the tropical Pacific. El Niño tends to bring milder winters to the northern US.
ONI: NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index, a 3-month average of tropical Pacific sea-temperature anomalies. +0.5 °C or more is El Niño; +1.5 or more is strong.
Season codes: Three-month seasons by initials: DJF = Dec–Feb, MAM = Mar–May, JJA = Jun–Aug, SON = Sep–Nov.
Polar vortex: A pool of very cold air over the Arctic. When it weakens or splits, cold outbreaks can reach the US and lift heating demand sharply.
Force majeure: An outage declared beyond an operator’s control, e.g. a pipeline shutting a section; it suspends delivery obligations.
Netback: What an LNG cargo earns after shipping and regasification costs; it shows whether exporting pays.
y/y: Year on year: compared with the same day last year.
Z (06Z): UTC time. 06Z is the weather-model run that starts at 06:00 UTC.
Supportive / Pressuring: Tends to lift / weigh on natural gas prices (the weekly post’s words, also used for the colours).Tends to lift / weigh on natural gas prices (the weekly post’s words).
30-day average: The average of the last 30 days, today included. On the charts it is the dotted normal line for daily flows.
Normal (on charts): The dotted line on each chart: the yardstick a figure is judged against. The 5-year average for storage, the 30-day average for daily flows, the 1991–2020 normal for degree days.
Small move: A change smaller than half the usual move for that figure over the past year. It stays grey.
Lower 48: The 48 contiguous US states, the area EIA’s storage and demand figures cover.