US natural gas fundamentals
Make informed trading decisions with daily fundamentals
Production, storage, exports, demand and our EIA storage estimate in one daily report, plus seven-model HDD/CDD degree-day forecasts, updated as each model run lands.
Degree-day sample (a run from 7 days ago)A$16.50/month or A$149.50/year, fees included · 30-day money-back guarantee
- 6.6 Bcf
- average miss against the EIA print, last 17 Thursdays (the 5-year average missed by 12.5) Track record
- 275 of 279
- days with a published report since 3 Jan 2026
- By 10:30 ET
- on 55 of the last 64 weekdays (median 09:22 ET)
Working gas in storage vs the 5-year range
EIA official · week ending 2 OctAbove the 5-yr average +68 Bcf, a small gap (EIA, week ending 2 Oct) inside the 5-year range
3,500 Bcf in storage · +85 Bcf net for the week · −130 Bcf vs a year ago
A gap under 72 Bcf counts as near normal, so it stays grey.
Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Lower 48, Bcf); 5-year average, minimum and maximum as published by EIA (2021–2025 for 2026 weeks, 2020–2024 for 2025 weeks).
Daily Report · Thu 1 Oct 2026
Colour = effect on prices:Colour = direction:SupportiveUpPressuringDownSmall move
Daily estimate is the storage level estimated each day between Thursday prints, against its own 5-year average. The chart above is EIA’s official weekly figure against EIA’s 5-year average, so the two differ a little.
A Super El Niño winter and a still-positive storage surplus keep Oct–Dec and Jan–Mar bearish against a strip carrying a $3.72 January premium, while Apr–Sep 2027 is balanced but leaning bullish as new LNG trains and post-El Niño summer heat offset a depressed $2.64 spring strip.
Bearish = prices more likely to fall than rise over that window; Bullish = more likely to rise. The further from the centre, the stronger the call: 40–50 lean · 50–65 clear call · 65–85 high conviction (Bearish and Bullish calls). A Neutral call sits in the middle; its word says whether it leans. Hollow ring = the Wed 30 Sep report; the arrow shows which way the call moved.Bearish = prices more likely to fall; Bullish = rise. Further from centre = stronger (40–85). Hollow ring = Wed 30 Sep.
- Storage estimate up 11.7 Bcf to 3,482.9 Bcf, 7.3 of it a revision to 30 Sep.
Twelve sections, one report, every day.
Every report carries the same twelve sections in the same order, so you can read it in five minutes or go deep. Each one leads with a plain sentence and its key figures. Plus the degree-day viewer and the members’ Discord.
01Outlook
Three horizons, each with a Bullish, Bearish or Neutral call and how strongly it is held, plus what moved since the last report.
02Our storage estimate: the next eight EIA reports+74 / +85
Our estimate of each of the next eight Thursday EIA prints against the 5-year average, re-anchored on every print.
Track recordour estimate against the EIA print, last 17 Thursdays (week ending 12 Jun – 2 Oct)
6.6 Bcf average miss over the last 17 prints, within ±10 Bcf on 13 of them; the worst was 13 Bcf. Using the EIA 5-year average change as the estimate would have missed by 12.5 on average.
| Week ending | 12 Jun | 19 Jun | 26 Jun | 3 Jul | 10 Jul | 17 Jul | 24 Jul | 31 Jul | 7 Aug | 14 Aug | 21 Aug | 28 Aug | 4 Sep | 11 Sep | 18 Sep | 25 Sep | 2 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | +74 | +86 | +91 | +52 | +51 | +31 | +41 | +31 | +30 | +29 | +25 | +25 | +29 | +45 | +59 | +64 | +74 |
| EIA print | +73 | +76 | +87 | +61 | +41 | +32 | +28 | +33 | +36 | +16 | +15 | +30 | +40 | +44 | +53 | +64 | +85 |
| Our miss | +1 | +10 | +4 | −9 | +10 | −1 | +13 | −2 | −6 | +13 | +10 | −5 | −11 | +1 | +6 | 0 | −11 |
| 5-yr average | +70 | +73 | +60 | +48 | +37 | +25 | +31 | +23 | +30 | +35 | +33 | +37 | +52 | +74 | +76 | +80 | +96 |
| Week ending | Ours | EIA | Miss | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct | +74 | +85 | −11 | +96 |
| 25 Sep | +64 | +64 | 0 | +80 |
| 18 Sep | +59 | +53 | +6 | +76 |
| 11 Sep | +45 | +44 | +1 | +74 |
| 4 Sep | +29 | +40 | −11 | +52 |
| 28 Aug | +25 | +30 | −5 | +37 |
| 21 Aug | +25 | +15 | +10 | +33 |
| 14 Aug | +29 | +16 | +13 | +35 |
| 7 Aug | +30 | +36 | −6 | +30 |
| 31 Jul | +31 | +33 | −2 | +23 |
| 24 Jul | +41 | +28 | +13 | +31 |
| 17 Jul | +31 | +32 | −1 | +25 |
| 10 Jul | +51 | +41 | +10 | +37 |
| 3 Jul | +52 | +61 | −9 | +48 |
| 26 Jun | +91 | +87 | +4 | +60 |
| 19 Jun | +86 | +76 | +10 | +73 |
| 12 Jun | +74 | +73 | +1 | +70 |
Net change, Bcf. Our estimate is the one in the last report published before each Thursday print. The benchmark is the EIA 5-year average change, not an analyst consensus. Our miss is our estimate minus the print (+ = our estimate was above EIA’s). Misses larger than 10 Bcf are in bold. Method
03Storage vs the 5-year average+73 Bcf
The daily storage estimate against the 5-year average and a year ago.
04Injections and withdrawals+11.5 Bcf
Each day’s net injection or withdrawal, settled through the day before, with weekly, monthly and season totals.
05Market balance+6.2 Bcf/d
Total supply minus total demand each day, against its 30-day average.
06Balance outlook: the next 14 days100.5 Bcf/d
Projected supply and demand for the next 14 days, with a likely range for each.
07Production107.2 Bcf/d
Daily dry-gas production: the first reading, the next day’s final, and its 30-day average.
08LNG feedgas17.0 Bcf/d
Gas flowing to the US LNG export terminals each day, and how much of their capacity it uses.
09Pipeline flows: Canada and Mexico−1.8 Bcf/d
Pipeline imports from Canada and exports to Mexico each day, and the net flow.
10Demand by sector106.2 Bcf/d
Power burn, industrial and residential/commercial demand, national, each against its 30-day average.
11Futures curve$3.008
The NYMEX curve for the listed contracts, each against its price in the report a week earlier.
12International benchmarks$24.39 TTF
Dutch TTF, UK NBP and Asian LNG (JKM) in $/MMBtu beside Henry Hub.
Degree Days: seven models138.2 TDD
Heating and cooling degree days from GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, AIGFS, GEFS, AIFS Ens Mean and CFS, population and gas-weighted, for the nation and the five EIA regions, updated as each model run lands.
Members’ Discord
An alert when each report is published, the EIA storage print at 10:30 ET on Thursdays, degree-day run alerts, and member discussion.
Figures from the Thu 1 Oct 2026 sample report and the GFS 00Z run of Thu 1 Oct (a week behind; members see every report and model run as it is published).
Open the full sampleSee it before you subscribe.
A GFS model run from a week ago, in the same degree-day viewer members use: 15-day tables against 1991–2020 normals for the nation and the five EIA regions. And every weekly commentary post, free to read.
Degree-day sample · GFS 00Z run of Thu 1 Oct
The word is the temperature. The number is degree days, a measure of demand: + means more gas needed for heating and cooling, − means less. The number’s colour is what that usually means for prices (grey = a small change). The number’s colour is which way it moved (grey = a small change).
- Pressuring, Cautious
- lean lower
- Balanced
- neutral
- Supportive, Constructive
- lean higher
One word per horizon in each Sunday post: and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, and Constructive lean higher. The daily report uses Bullish, Bearish or Neutral, and its colours use supportive and pressuring for the same direction.One word per horizon in each Sunday post: and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, and Constructive lean higher. The daily report uses Bullish, Bearish or Neutral.
Natural gas prices slipped about 6% last week as mild early-autumn weather kept heating demand low and the country kept adding gas to storage at a steady clip. Underground supplies are a little higher than normal for this time of year, though lower than a year ago. The bigger story is El Niño, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that tends to bring milder winters to the northern United States.
Read the whole postMembers also get the daily outlook: a Bullish, Bearish or Neutral call for each horizon, with how strongly it is held.
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Quick facts
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What time are reports published?
Every day of the week. On weekdays the report is usually up by 10:30 ET (55 of the last 64 weekdays; median 09:22 ET): it waits until all ten core data series for the gas day are in, rather than publish blanks. Weekend reports usually post by 15:00 ET (22 of the last 26; median 12:40 ET). Members get a Discord alert the moment it’s up.
Where does the data come from?
EIA storage and statistics, NOAA and ECMWF weather models, NOAA CPC’s ENSO index, NYMEX and European gas futures, and daily estimates of production, pipeline flows, LNG feedgas and demand. More on our Method page.
Do you provide HDD/CDD degree-day forecasts?
Yes: seven models, GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, AIGFS, GEFS, AIFS Ens Mean and CFS (ECMWF AIFS, AIGFS and AIFS Ens Mean are AI models), with 15-day tables (14 to 15 days for the ECMWF models) against 1991–2020 normals, population and gas-weighted, for the nation and the five EIA regions, updated as each model run lands. Included with every plan. Open the degree-day sample
How are the outlook and the weekly commentary made?
The daily outlook is written from each day’s data, and the Sunday commentary from the week’s daily outlooks and public market news, under the rules on our Method page.
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Everything is in the members’ area, Daily Reports: log in from any device and the latest report, the last 30 reports and the degree-day viewer are there. The samples on this page are free to read without an account.
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Daily Reports keeps the latest 30 reports, each as a web page and a PDF. Older reports are available on request.
What’s included in the Discord community?
An alert when each report is published, the EIA print at 10:30 ET on Thursdays, and 12Z degree-day run alerts, and member discussion. To join, subscribe, then use Open Discord on the Daily Reports page; our bot checks your subscription email in seconds.
Is this suitable for beginners?
The reports are written for anyone following natural gas, from newer traders to professionals. Each section leads with one plain sentence, and a Data and methods block at the end defines the terms. Every report has a How to read button, and every ? or dotted-underlined word opens its meaning.
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Latest report Thu 8 Oct · published 10:17 ET
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