Public market commentary from NatGas Central: a look back at the past week in natural gas and the setup for the week ahead, with a plain-English summary at the end of every post.
Natural gas futures rose 3.5% to near $3 last week despite a widening storage surplus, as strong LNG exports offset a mild El Niño start to the heating season.
In plain English
Natural gas prices firmed up last week, rising about 3.5% to just under $3, even though the country is storing more gas than usual for this time of year. An unusually mild start to November has kept furnaces quiet across the northern states, so extra supply is going into storage instead of homes. Forecasters expect a strong El Niño, a warming of Pacific waters that tends to bring milder winters to the northern U.S., to peak around December, which could help keep heating bills in check. What is holding prices up is demand from overseas: U.S. export plants are shipping gas abroad nearly as fast as they can, and that pull could lift prices by next summer.
26 posts, 19 May – 8 Nov 2026 · oldest on the left · clicktap a column to open that post
House view by horizon for 26 weekly posts, 19 May to 8 Nov 2026. Now: 1–3 months: Cautious since 25 Oct; 3–6 months: Cautious since 1 Nov; 6–12 months: Supportive since 25 Oct. The list below and its pages link every post.
Latest1–3 mo3–6 mo6–12 moMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
Pressuring, Cautious
lean lower
Balanced
neutral
Supportive, Constructive
lean higher
Each post opens with one of five direction words for each horizon. They show a lean, not a trade call: and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, and Constructive lean higher. The daily report’s calls use Bullish / Bearish / Neutral, and its colours use supportive and pressuring for the same direction.Each post opens with one of five direction words for each horizon. They show a lean, not a trade call: and Cautious lean lower, Balanced is neutral, and Constructive lean higher. The daily report’s calls use Bullish / Bearish / Neutral.
Earlier posts
The house view is shown only where it changed from the post before (—a dash = unchanged)
Natural gas fell 5% last week as a bigger-than-expected storage build and El Niño warmth hit December; this week hinges on the EIA report and early cold risk.
3–6 mo Cautiouswas Balanced
—1–3 mo unchangedCautious (changed, was Balanced)—6–12 mo unchanged
Natural gas futures fell 15.3% as a warm early-November outlook hit the prompt contract, while a lean 77 Bcf build and strong LNG demand set up the winter roll.
1–3 mo Cautiouswas Balanced6–12 mo Supportivewas Constructive
Cautious (changed, was Balanced)—3–6 mo unchangedSupportive (changed, was Constructive)
Natural gas fell 3.2% last week as a light +67 Bcf storage build lost out to mild El Niño weather; Thursday's EIA report and November expiry come next.
3–6 mo Balancedwas Supportive6–12 mo Constructivewas Balanced
—1–3 mo unchangedBalanced (changed, was Supportive)Constructive (changed, was Balanced)
Natural gas rallied 6.1% as Hurricane Isaias and a thin storage cushion lifted November; with the storm gone, the winter weather fight now takes center stage.
1–3 mo Balancedwas Cautious3–6 mo Supportivewas Cautious
Balanced (changed, was Cautious)Supportive (changed, was Cautious)—6–12 mo unchanged
Natural gas rallied to its highest since early July as a +53 Bcf build kept September tight, but October's surplus and a record El Niño test the winter premium.
—1–3 mo unchanged—3–6 mo unchanged—6–12 mo unchanged
US gas gave back an early-week pop as the autumn shoulder loosened, even as a European supply crunch and near-capacity LNG exports kept a floor under prices.
—1–3 mo unchanged—3–6 mo unchanged—6–12 mo unchanged
Henry Hub closed at an 8-week high on tight early-September builds and near-capacity LNG pull, even as a record-strength El Niño undercuts the winter strip.
—1–3 mo unchanged—3–6 mo unchanged—6–12 mo unchanged
Henry Hub rallied near 4% as Gulf export maintenance eased and Southern heat lingered, but record storage and a Super El Nino keep the winter strip capped.
—1–3 mo unchanged—3–6 mo unchanged—6–12 mo unchanged
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means the move usually supports natural-gas prices; red means it usually weighs on them. More production is red because extra supply tends to push prices down. More LNG feedgas is green because exports take gas out of the US market. Storage is judged against the 5-year average for the same date, so a normal-sized build stays grey. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). It’s a rule of thumb, not a forecast: the outlook weighs everything together. Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by what it means for prices, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Arrows show which way each number moved. Green means it went up, red that it went down; prices are green when they rise. Grey means the figure is smaller than half its usual size over the past year (for a day change, half the usual daily move). Degree days keep their warm and cool words; the number is coloured by which way it moved, except on the Degree Days pages, where word and number both keep the temperature colour.
Thresholds last worked out on 31 Oct 2026 from the year before.