Robpoll

Henry Hub shed about 6.5% on the week even as cooling demand ramped, while a strengthening El Niño keeps pressure on the back of the curve.

Cooling demand and below-pace storage builds keep the prompt firm, but a strengthening El Niño and record output leave next winter looking heavy.

Natural gas ripped to a 2.5-month high on confirmed summer heat last week, but a near-certain warm winter keeps the back of the curve heavy heading into June.

Front-month natural gas gave back the late-May heat-dome bid as Memorial Day cooled the East and the 26-27 mild-winter case got harder to ignore.

Natural gas rallied to a six-week high near $2.96 as production rolled and El Niño Watch went official, but a fat storage surplus capped the shoulder.

Thursday’s 63 Bcf injection printed well below consensus, but a heavy storage cushion and soft shoulder kept Henry Hub anchored in the high $2.70s.

An 11-week low in dry output and a Cameron LNG feedgas dip lifted the front, but deep summer contango shows the heat bid is still parked further out the curve.