Weekly Commentary

Natural gas rallied 6.1% as Hurricane Isaias and a thin storage cushion lifted November; with the storm gone, the winter weather fight now takes center stage.

Natural gas fell 5.9% last week as an in-line +64 Bcf build and mild El Niño weather pressured November; the STEO and Thursday’s EIA report come next.

Natural gas rallied to its highest since early July as a +53 Bcf build kept September tight, but October’s surplus and a record El Niño test the winter premium.

A tight late-September tail kept the front firm, but a loosening October shoulder and a record El Niño winter mean cap every rally into contango.

US gas gave back an early-week pop as the autumn shoulder loosened, even as a European supply crunch and near-capacity LNG exports kept a floor under prices.

Henry Hub closed at an 8-week high on tight early-September builds and near-capacity LNG pull, even as a record-strength El Niño undercuts the winter strip.

Henry Hub rallied near 4% as Gulf export maintenance eased and Southern heat lingered, but record storage and a Super El Nino keep the winter strip capped.

Natural gas clawed back an early-week flush as late-August heat lingered, but a record El Niño keeps fading the rich winter premium into a warm-leaning season.

Late-summer heat kept the prompt firm as record output loosened the balance, but a record-track El Nino bled the winter premium lower all week.

Natural gas slipped about 2% last week as a firming summer burn met a carried storage surplus and a Freeport-capped export bid ahead of Thursday’s EIA print.