Welcome to another very volatile week everyone.
I hope you’ve all had a great break, and happy Easter break.
Markets are brutal right now, this is how I see Natgas now, and moving forward.
Right now, Supply has taken over. Demand is below 100bcf per day, which is a bearish factor, made worse by suppliers who started bringing on supply when prices were at $4. Now the Supply is finally coming online and hitting the markets, probably at one of the worst times.
Personally, in the short to mid term. I expect prices to continue chopping lower. I expected some resistance around $3, but then ultimately a break below $3 and into the $2s.
Now, that’s also very dependant on a lot of things.
Firstly, if Trump reverses policy and spurs growth, Natgas will likely bottom and start rising.
Second, Summer demand is looking mostly normal. The high demand areas are set to experience a comfortable summer.
If that suddenly changes, and Summer gets warmer, that’ll send Natgas higher on demand.
My feeling, is we’ll see a bit a pop here soon, we’ve come very far with minimal pullbacks or pops higher.
Long term to mid term, I expect we’ll be back in the $2’s.
Looking very far out, there aren’t any new Export projects coming online until maybe December, mostly likely early 2026.
Winter is set to be warmer compared to last year, so if we get anything like the winter of 2022, Supply will overtake demand, and send us back below $2.
I suspect we’ve washed out all the speculators, or most of them, and Natgas has mostly returned to the way we like it.
Supply and Demand are a major factor driving the market, but you need to keep an eye out on Trump, and any changes he brings.
Short to Mid term, expecting a bounce, maybe test of $2.8.
Long term, expecting the $2s, or back below $2.
Keep an eye out for that $3 level, if enough buyers step in, and $3 doesn’t break, it could mean we’ve bottomed for now, and leaves room for a summer bounce.
How we interact with the key $3, and what price does, will guide me to either add or take profit.
Either way, my current profitable positions have trailing stoplosses, to prevent losing any gains.
Make sure you play it safe, especially these days.